The 98,000 level now seems a bit precarious.

Recently, on-chain data shows that a major asset management firm has been continuously selling off for several days, and many small to medium-sized whale addresses are also reducing their holdings. What's more concerning is that large holders haven't shown any clear signs of stepping in to buy. Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped back to around 100,000 and has been fluctuating in that range, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging at each other — although the bottom is gradually being raised, and some funds are tentatively entering the market, the rally faltered before even reaching 104,500. The inability to break through the high indicates that this rebound is essentially a weak correction, far from signaling a true trend reversal.

The current issue is that major capital is clearly hesitating around the 98,000 mark. From a technical perspective, the rebound momentum is quite weak. And on the news front — the US government shutdown saga isn’t over yet, and market sentiment indicators have already fallen into extreme panic territory. If a major asset manager continues to lead a sell-off, the outlook could turn grim. If the price falls below 98,000, it could accelerate downward, heading toward 96,000, 92,000, or even testing support levels in the 80,000s or 70,000s.

Many people say that during times of panic, it’s actually a good opportunity to buy the dip, with plenty of room for growth in the future. That’s true in a bull market, but right now, it’s more like… if we’re truly entering the early stages of a bear market, then all “buy-the-dip signals” could become the norm, and every dip might end up being at the mid or upper levels of a rally.

Instead of betting on the exact turning point between bull and bear markets, it’s better to wait until the trend becomes clearer before entering for more certain opportunities. After all, what you think is a “fish head” might actually be a “fish tail.”