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On November 7th, the Financial Times revealed a warning that has the market on edge — multiple Wall Street institutions believe the string holding up the U.S. money market might be about to snap again.
Short-term borrowing rates seemed to stabilize this week, but the recent "stalls" in the financial system last month have already caused many bankers and policymakers to break out in cold sweats. What are they worried about? A potential spike in repo rates once more.
Deldre Dune, head of rates at Citibank and chair of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, was blunt: "This isn’t just a minor hiccup that will pass in a few days." The implication is clear — trouble is still ahead.
Scott Skirm, EVP at Curvature Securities, shared a similar view. He said the market has "returned to normal," with some banks easing through Federal Reserve funding tools, but "by the end of next month and at year’s end, funding pressures will definitely return."
More critically, Megan Swiber, a rate strategist at Bank of America, pointed out the root of the problem: Treasury issuance has been too aggressive, already at high levels by historical standards, and traditional buyers are running out of capacity. Her straightforward assessment: "A long-dormant large buyer might have to step in — and that buyer is the Fed."
In other words, the Fed may have to intervene more quickly to prevent another surge in short-term rates. The spark that could ignite the next crisis in the money market is just a matter of time.