#OctoberRateCutForecast

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates and ended its balance sheet reduction program.

The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. It will end its balance sheet reduction program on December 1st.

Officials cited rising labor risks. However, they warned that inflation remains high. This signaled cautious easing.

The move could increase short-term liquidity and support cryptocurrency markets. However, inflation concerns could limit gains.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is lowering its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing it to a range of 3.75%–4.00%: its second rate cut this year.

The central bank said economic growth is moderate, employment growth is slowing, and unemployment is rising slightly. However, inflation remains "slightly elevated," making the Fed cautious about further easing.
The Fed is balancing inflation and labor market risks.

This decision also confirmed that the Fed will end quantitative easing on December 1st: the balance sheet reduction process will pause earlier than expected.

The statement highlighted the growing downside risks to employment: inflation had been the primary focus in previous meetings.

The Fed said it would evaluate future policy based on "incoming data" and the "balance of risks" to its dual target.

Chairman Jerome Powell and most committee members supported the decision, but two members opposed it. Stephen Miran favored a deeper 50 basis point cut, citing weak employment data.
Economic Outlook.

Current indicators suggest growth is continuing at a moderate pace, but critical labor indicators are softening. The unemployment rate remains low, but the Fed has acknowledged that it has risen slightly since the summer.

Inflation has accelerated since the beginning of 2025, reinforcing concerns that prices may remain above the 2% target longer than expected.

Futures markets are assigning a 70% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December.

However, Powell is expected to emphasize a data-driven approach at his press conference.
Cryptocurrency market outlook.

Policy changes could increase risk appetite in the short term. Bitcoin and major altcoins are generally positively impacted when liquidity expands and bond yields fall.

Some companies have predicted that the Bitcoin price will exceed $150,000 by the end of 2025.

However, persistent inflation could limit widespread optimism. If inflation expectations rise again, strong dollar flows could put renewed pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Analysts believe the balance between easing and inflation will determine the next phase of the cryptocurrency market.

Ongoing liquidity support could propel Bitcoin above critical resistance levels, but a hawkish tone in December could reverse these gains.