ETH Market Analysis on October 20

1. Trend Analysis

· Bearish pattern confirmed: Price is below all short- to medium-term EMAs (EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA72)
· Key position contest: The current price of 3,931.34 is almost overlapping with the EMA5 of 3,934.70, testing this short-term resistance.
· Deep correction status: Down from the peak of 4,772.54 to the current price level, a decline of over 17%.
· Unique Support: Only EMA180(3,626.83) still provides long-term support

2. MACD Indicator Analysis

· Strong bearish signal:
· DIF(-112.37) < DEA(-85.28), MACD histogram is negative (-27.09)
· The difference is obvious, showing that the bearish momentum is dominant.
· This is a typical downtrend confirmation signal

3. Volume Analysis

· Severely reduced volume: The current trading volume of 938 million is far lower than the 5-day average of 1844 million( and the 10-day average of 1079 million).
· Weak buying: During the decline, trading volume shrinks, indicating extremely low market participation.
· Risk Signal: There is a clear divergence between volume and price, and a corresponding trading volume is needed for an effective rebound.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Immediate resistance: 3,934.70 (EMA5)
· Strong Resistance 1: 4,002.39 (EMA10)
· Strong resistance 2: 4,105.01 (EMA72)
· Support levels:
· Key support: 3,907.00 (24-hour low)
· Strong support: 3,626.83 (EMA180)

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): continue to test support downwards.

1. Reason: MACD bearish signal + moving average resistance + insufficient trading volume
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 3,907.00 (24-hour low point)
· Second target: 3,800-3,750 range
· Key target: 3,626.83 (EMA180)

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound

1. Condition: A buying pressure emerges based on the effective support at 3,907.
2. Retracement target: 4,002-4,100 range (EMA10-EMA72 resistance zone)
3. Nature Judgment: If it cannot break through 4,002, it is still a downward continuation.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Strong reversal

1. Condition: Break through 4,105 with volume and hold steady.
2. Features: Significant positive news driving the momentum
3. Extremely low probability: Current technical indicators do not support a strong reversal.

Trading advice

For long holders:

· Suggest to reduce positions during the rebound: consider reducing positions in the range of 3,950-4,000.
· Strict stop loss: set below 3,900
· If it falls below 3,907, you should immediately exit and observe.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position at 3,930-3,950, with a stop loss above 4,000.
· Target levels: 3,907, 3,800, 3,700
· Wait for a callback to the 3,650-3,630 support area before considering placing a long order.

Risk control focus:

· Key Observation Points:
· Is the 3,907 support valid?
· Can the trading volume return?
· 3,935 resistance breakthrough situation
· Short stop loss: Breakthrough 4,020
· Long position entry point: 3,650-3,630 (near EMA180)

Risk Warning

1. The technical outlook is largely bearish, and a strong performance in the short term is unlikely.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,626 is a key defense line; losing it will open up greater downside potential.
3. Overall market sentiment is weak, affecting the independent performance of ETH.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop losses, and control risks.

Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators supporting further downside. In the short term, it may oscillate in the 3,907-3,935 range before choosing a direction, with a higher probability of moving downward. The strategy should focus on shorting at highs, with strict risk control, patiently waiting for a bullish entry opportunity near the strong support at 3,626.