ETH October 16 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· Clear bearish pattern: The price has fallen below all short-term and medium-term EMAs (EMA5, EMA10, EMA30, EMA72)
· Unique support: Only EMA180(3,612.89) still provides long-term support
· Moving averages in a bearish arrangement: EMA5 < EMA10 < EMA30 < EMA72, presenting a standard bearish trend.
· Pullback from a high: A significant retracement from the high point of 4,748 to the current price level, with a decline of over 16%.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis - Strong Bearish Signal

· Clear Dead Cross: DIF(-71.84) < DEA(-37.12), MACD histogram is a relatively large negative value (-34.71)
· The bearish momentum is strong: MACD is significantly negative, indicating ample downward momentum.
· Trend Confirmation: This is a typical signal for confirming a downward trend.

3. Volume Analysis

· Decreased trading volume: Current trading volume is 347,100, which is below the 5-day average of 1,452,600 and the 10-day average of 1,423,200.
· Market meaning: During the decline, buying pressure is insufficient, but selling pressure is also relatively mild.
· Attention needed: If there is a significant drop in volume, it may accelerate the downward trend.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 4,087.91 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 2: 4,136.69 (EMA72)
· Strong Resistance 3: 4,157.31 (EMA10)
· Support Levels:
· Key Support: 3,827.08 (24-hour low)
· Strong support: 3,612.89 (EMA180)

Market trend prediction

Most likely scenario (60% probability): Continue to test EMA180 support.

1. Reason: MACD death cross + moving average bearish alignment + price breaking through multiple supports
2. Downward Target:
· First target: 3,827.08 (24-hour low)
· Second target: 3,612.89 (EMA180 strong support)
3. Nature judgment: If it falls below 3,612, it may trigger a deeper decline.

Possible scenario (30% probability): Technical rebound to the resistance zone

1. Condition: Support at around 3,827 leads to a rebound.
2. Rebound target: 4,087-4,136 range (EMA5-EMA72 resistance zone)
3. Requirements: Need to increase trading volume.

Low probability scenario (10% probability): Direct reversal upwards

1. Conditions: Major positive news drives buying pressure
2. Feature: Volume spike long bullish breakout at 4,200
3. The probability is extremely low: the current technical indicators strongly support a continued decline.

Trading Suggestions

For long holders:

· It is recommended to reduce positions on a rebound: consider reducing positions or exiting in the 4,000-4,100 range.
· Strict stop loss: set below 3,820
· If it falls below 3,827, you should exit immediately.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position between 3,980-4,050, with a stop loss above 4,150.
· Target levels: 3,830, 3,650
· Wait for a pullback to the 3,620-3,650 support area before considering a long position.

Risk control focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the support at 3,827 effective?
· Changes in trading volume
· 4,087 resistance strength
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 4,150
· Long position entry point: 3,620-3,650 (near EMA180)

Risk Warning

1. The technical indicators have fully turned bearish, and there is little chance of a strong performance in the short term.
2. The EMA180 support at 3,612 is the last line of defense; losing it will open up more downward space.
3. The overall cryptocurrency market sentiment is weak, affecting ETH's independent performance.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-loss orders, and control risk.

Summary: ETH is currently in a clear bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators issuing strong bearish signals. The probability of continuing to test the support levels of 3,827 and 3,612 in the short term is quite high. The strategy should focus on shorting on rallies, with strict risk control, and patiently waiting for better long entry opportunities.