The IMF stated that Trump's trade war may drag down global output.

On October 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday, citing that the impact of tariff shocks and the financial environment has been milder than expected. However, it warned that the Trump trade war could significantly drag down global output. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF stated that recent trade agreements reached by the United States with some major economies have averted the most severe tariff measures threatened by Trump. This has prompted the IMF to raise its growth forecast for the second time since April, now expecting: a global real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, up from the 3.0% predicted in July; a global growth rate of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the July forecast; a GDP growth of 2.0% in the United States in 2025, slightly above July's 1.9%; and a growth of 2.1% in 2026, also a slight upward adjustment but significantly lower than the 2.8% in 2024. The IMF noted that U.S. growth benefits from a lower-than-expected level of tariffs, fiscal boosts from Republican tax reforms, a loose financial environment, and a surge in artificial intelligence investments. ( Jin10 )