9.30 AI Daily SEC takes a stand in the crypto market, government shutdown crisis intensifies regulatory uncertainty.

1. Headline

1. The U.S. government is approaching a shutdown, and the lack of key economic data may exacerbate market volatility.

The U.S. government will face a funding deadline on September 30, and if Congress fails to pass a spending bill, millions of federal employees may face unpaid leave. A government shutdown will delay the release of this week's U.S. job market report, and an extended government stoppage could weigh on the economy.

This may lead to increased volatility in the financial markets, with the US dollar and risk asset prices under pressure. In this context, Bitcoin, as a risk asset and a safe-haven tool, is likely to experience high-pressure volatility and face adjustment pressure in the short term. Investors need to pay attention to the direct impact of the delay in macro data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI on market sentiment.

The performance of the dollar during past shutdowns has been mixed; sometimes it even rose due to its status as a reserve currency, but now this possibility seems greatly reduced. Traders have also been buying dollars recently, significantly lowering their net short positions, which leaves them unprepared for events that could weaken the dollar. This risk is heightened in a situation where the dollar is no longer viewed as a safe asset.

2. The SEC requires the withdrawal of ETF application documents for XRP and other tokens, and the spot ETF may be approved.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suddenly requested all issuers of XRP, ADA, DOGE, LTC, and SOL spot ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 application documents. This dramatic shift means that these spot ETFs may launch as early as this week.

With the successful launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF setting a record for first-day trading volume, and the SEC approving new general listing standards, the likelihood of XRP spot ETF receiving regulatory approval has greatly increased. The SEC's new rules allow eligible spot ETFs to list without separately submitting rule changes. As XRP futures have been trading on exchanges for over six months, the market generally expects that the XRP spot ETF could be approved at any time.

Analysts point out that the SEC's move aims to simplify the approval process and pave the way for cryptocurrency ETFs. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the approval success rate for the SOL spot ETF is now approaching 100%. Industry insiders believe that the SEC's new measures will promote the institutionalization of the cryptocurrency market and attract more institutional funds to enter.

3. Anthropic released the Claude 4.5 AI model, which performs excellently in financial and scientific tasks.

AI startup Anthropic released the Claude 4.5 AI model on Monday. This latest version is capable of longer continuous coding and performs better in financial and scientific tasks.

This move marks that the company is intensifying its layout in the enterprise AI field. This company, supported by Alphabet and Amazon, is racing against competitors to build models that can reliably operate software and complete multi-step tasks, which is crucial for AI agents.

The company's Chief Product Officer, Mike Krieger, stated that in internal testing, the Sonnet 4.5 model created a web application from scratch, while one client allowed the AI chatbot to code autonomously for 30 hours, which is a significant improvement compared to the 7-hour coding task completed for another client by Claude Opus 4.

As AI technology continues to break through, its application scenarios are expanding from consumer level to enterprise level. The demand for AI in fields such as finance and scientific research is increasing day by day, and the emergence of Claude 4.5 will further promote the implementation of AI in these professional fields.

4. OpenAI's new version of the Sora video generator, copyright content or used by default.

According to informed sources, OpenAI plans to release a new version of the Sora video generator, which will use copyrighted content when generating videos, unless the copyright holder chooses to "opt out".

This means that film companies and other intellectual property owners must explicitly request that OpenAI does not use their copyrighted works in videos generated by Sora, otherwise their copyrighted content will be used by default. The new exit process has been communicated to brokerage firms and film studios over the past week.

The launch of the new version may trigger copyright disputes. On one hand, AI-generated content contributes to innovation and freedom of expression; on the other hand, the unauthorized use of others' intellectual property also carries legal risks. OpenAI's move aims to promote AI creation, but it may also exacerbate conflicts with the traditional content industry.

Relevant parties need to reach a consensus on copyright issues in the AI era, seeking a balance between protecting intellectual property and promoting innovation. The government may need to formulate new laws and regulations to clarify the bottom line for AI content generation.

5. Cryptocurrency concept stocks are rising broadly, but altcoins are weak, and hot money may be withdrawing.

On September 30th, mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rebound, with the total market capitalization returning above $4 trillion. In stark contrast, altcoins showed weak performance, with popular tokens like Aster and XPL showing signs of correction.

Analysts point out that this trend may be driven by the rise in the three major US stock indices and the general increase in cryptocurrency concept stocks. However, the weakness of altcoins may indicate that hot money is withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, new tokens such as MIRA, HEMI, and 0G have also seen declines, possibly due to the opening market capitalization rising too sharply. This phenomenon has again raised questions in the market regarding the "washing" behavior of exchanges.

Overall, despite a rebound in mainstream cryptocurrencies, market confidence still needs to be restored. Investors should be alert to the risks of hot money withdrawal and exchange manipulation, and rationally view short-term market fluctuations.

2. Industry News

1. Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance of $114,000, reigniting hopes for an "Uptober" rally.

The price of Bitcoin has risen by 3.62% in the past 24 hours, successfully breaking through several key resistance levels, with the current trading price at $114,423 and a daily trading volume of up to $62.2 billion. Analysts believe that this strong rebound is mainly driven by the rise of the three major U.S. stock indices, the broad rally of cryptocurrency concept stocks, and the continued inflow of institutional funds.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders are accumulating, exchange reserves are decreasing, and the market is in an "accumulation phase". This indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and are gradually building positions within the current price range.

However, altcoins are performing weakly, and market confidence still needs to recover. Analysts point out that whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum largely depends on whether the U.S. government shuts down as scheduled on October 1. Once the government is in a shutdown, the release of key economic data will be hindered, which may trigger fluctuations in market sentiment and put pressure on cryptocurrency prices.

Overall, after Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance area, it is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term. However, investors need to closely monitor macro factors such as government shutdown risks and employment data, and prudently manage their risk exposure.

2. The SEC requires the withdrawal of the ETF application documents for XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE. The underlying reason may be favorable.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) has instructed all issuers of ADA, DOGE, LTC, SOL, and XRP ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 application documents. This move follows the SEC's procedural shift after approving the "General Listing Standards" ( GLS ) on September 17, indicating that the need for the 19b-4 documents has been canceled.

Market analysts believe that this move indicates the SEC may choose to "bulk approve" all cryptocurrency spot ETFs, eliminating the "first-mover advantage." Experts say that this strategic move suggests an anticipated change in the financial system, and future ETF approvals and staking opportunities could drive XRP's upward trend.

Analysts predict that if the SEC ultimately approves the XRP spot ETF, it will bring a significant amount of institutional funds to Ripple, helping the price break through the $3 mark. Currently, XRP is hovering around $3, and investors are closely watching the potential launch of BlackRock's iShares XRP Trust.

At the same time, the Solana ecosystem is expected to attract more capital inflows with the approval of ETFs. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the success rate for the approval of SOL spot ETFs is now close to 100%.

Overall, the motives behind the SEC's request to withdraw the ETF application documents are worth optimistic anticipation. If the regulatory body ultimately gives the green light, it will bring a new wave of institutional capital inflow into the crypto market, boosting mainstream token prices.

3. Ethereum Treasury Company mines a substantial increase of $107 million in ETH, as institutional layout heats up.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a suspected mine address has increased its holdings by 25,369 ETH, worth $107 million, indicating that leading institutions are still positioning themselves. As the largest holder of Ethereum, mine currently holds 2.65 million ETH, exceeding 2% of the total supply.

At the same time, the SEC will make a final ruling on 16 cryptocurrency ETFs in October, covering tokens such as Solana, XRP, and LTC, which is referred to in the industry as "ETF month." Institutional applications are also accelerating, with 21Shares updating its spot Solana ETF filings and continuously improving its compliance framework.

Analysts point out that the continuous inflow of institutional funds will bring new momentum for a bull market in the crypto market. As the "big brother" of the industry, Ethereum's ongoing positioning by institutions reflects a long-term optimism for the entire ecosystem.

However, there is also a viewpoint that the price trend of Ethereum is more dominated by "psychological factors," and technical strength is not the main driving force. The latest research results from the Ethereum Foundation show that investor psychology and market perception have an impact on the price of ETH that is equally important as the technical fundamentals.

Overall, institutions' continued positioning in Ethereum will provide medium to long-term support for the coin's price. However, investors need to pay attention to the impact of sentiment factors on prices and cautiously manage their risk exposure.

4. Gold reaches a new high, the market capitalization of tokenized gold surpasses 3 billion USD, and the demand for hedging continues to rise.

Amid rising geopolitical risks and trade protectionism, market risk aversion is high, with funds flowing into safe assets such as gold and US Treasuries. Data shows that spot gold prices have risen to $3850 per ounce, setting a new historical high.

Meanwhile, the market capitalization of tokenized gold has also surpassed 3 billion USD, reflecting the growing demand from investors for digital safe-haven assets. Analysts point out that in the context of a slowing global economy and heightened geopolitical tensions, traditional safe-haven assets like gold will continue to be in high demand.

However, there is also a viewpoint that if the U.S. government shuts down as scheduled on October 1, the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar may be shaken, and risk assets will face downward pressure. In this scenario, Bitcoin, as a risk asset and a safe-haven tool, may experience high-level pressure fluctuations and face adjustment pressure in the short term.

Overall, the sustained rise in risk aversion will provide support for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, and tokenized gold will also share in this benefit. However, investors need to pay attention to the impact of government shutdown risks on market sentiment and asset prices, and respond cautiously to potential volatility.

3. Project News

1. Anthropic released the Sonnet 4.5 model, significantly enhancing AI coding capabilities.

Anthropic is an artificial intelligence company founded by former researchers from OpenAI. The company recently released the Sonnet 4.5 model, achieving significant breakthroughs in coding capabilities.

Sonnet 4.5 model can create web applications from scratch and autonomously code for up to 30 hours, significantly surpassing the coding capabilities of previous versions. This advancement marks a significant progress by Anthropic in building reliable operational software and completing multi-step tasks with AI agents.

The release of this model will promote the application of artificial intelligence in the field of software development, with the expectation of improving programming efficiency and reducing development costs. In the future, AI may become a valuable assistant for programmers, helping to complete various coding tasks.

Industry insiders have welcomed the Sonnet 4.5 model, believing it demonstrates the immense potential of AI in the programming field. However, some analysts remind that AI coding is still in its early stages and requires further improvement in terms of reliability and security.

2. Chainlink and institutions like DTCC complete blockchain and AI technology pilot projects.

The blockchain oracle project Chainlink announced that its pilot project on blockchain and artificial intelligence technology, in collaboration with institutions such as the American Depository Trust Company ( DTCC ) and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication ( SWIFT ), has completed the second phase of testing.

The project aims to build a unified on-chain data recording system, integrating large language models from companies such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Test results show that the system can automatically verify the outputs of multiple AI models and interact with the SWIFT network through the ISO 20022 standard.

In addition, the pilot program also explored the practical application of asset tokenization, providing technical validation for the on-chain circulation of traditional assets such as stocks and real estate. This innovation is expected to promote the digital transformation of traditional financial assets.

Analysts believe that the integration of Chainlink's blockchain and AI technology will bring transformation to the financial industry. In the future, AI may assist in processing complex financial data and transactions, improving efficiency and reducing costs. However, in practical applications, security and regulatory compliance remain key issues that need to be focused on.

3. DoubleZero received a no-action letter from the SEC, confirming that the 2Z token does not need to be registered as a security.

Solana custom fiber network DoubleZero announced that its 2Z token has received a no-action letter from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ), confirming that 2Z does not need to be registered as a "equity security" category, and its programmatic liquidity on the DoubleZero network does not fall under securities trading.

DoubleZero is set to launch its mainnet and deploy the 2Z token on October 2nd. The project aims to provide high-speed, low-cost data transmission services for the Solana ecosystem.

The SEC's no-action letter provides compliance assurance for the issuance of the 2Z token, helping to attract institutional investors' participation. At the same time, this decision also sends a positive signal for other functional tokens to gain regulatory recognition.

Analysts say that the SEC's classification of the 2Z token reflects a fundamental shift in the regulatory body's attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry, which is beneficial for promoting the long-term healthy development of the industry. However, there are also views that regulatory policies still carry uncertainties, and project parties need to continue exercising caution.

Overall, the issuance of a no-action letter by the SEC to DoubleZero is a milestone event in the field of cryptocurrency regulation, and its impact may extend beyond the project itself.

4. Economic Dynamics

1. The U.S. government shutdown crisis worsens, key economic data releases may be hindered.

The overall U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate growth trend, with a seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth of 2.1% in the second quarter, slightly below expectations. The inflation rate fell to 5.3% in August but remains above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. The job market remains strong, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low 3.7% in August.

Important Event: The U.S. government faces an urgent threat of a shutdown on September 30, unless Republicans and Democrats can reach a funding agreement at the last moment. This political deadlock could directly impact the long-awaited deliberation process of the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, which was originally scheduled for a vote in October but may now be forced to delay indefinitely.

Market reaction: The government shutdown will freeze all legislative activities and lead to crypto regulatory agencies such as the SEC and CFTC entering a "severely limited" operational status, with all new rule-making and enforcement actions expected to cease. The market is highly concerned about the uncertainty this event brings to crypto regulatory progress and the release of US economic data.

Expert opinion: The U.S. government shutdown will delay the release of key economic indicators, including the non-farm monthly employment report scheduled for release on Friday. This data is an important basis for the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation and determine interest rate policy. Once missing, market uncertainty will significantly increase. Analysts point out that the lack of official data means the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to assess whether to further cut interest rates based on "gold standard" data before the October monetary policy meeting.

2. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold, with uncertain inflation prospects.

The Australian economy showed weak performance in the first half of 2023, with a seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth of only 0.8% in the second quarter, below expectations. The inflation rate rose to a high of 7% in August, far exceeding the central bank's target range of 2-3%. The job market remains robust, with an unemployment rate of 3.5% in August.

Important event: The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% during its monetary policy meeting in September. The central bank indicated that recent data suggests third-quarter inflation may be higher than expected, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.

Market Reaction: The market had generally expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at this meeting. The RBA's decision to hold rates steady has sparked a divergence in the market regarding its policy outlook, with some believing this indicates the end of the rate hike cycle, while others argue that the RBA still has room for further rate increases.

Expert Opinion: Citigroup's research analysis suggests that under cyclical and structural drivers, gold and silver may continue their upward trend. Structural positive factors include concerns over U.S. debt, the dollar's reserve currency status, and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Cyclical favorable factors include the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market, concerns about tariff impacts, and broader worries about global economic growth.

3. The Bank of Japan may shift to a hawkish stance, and the normalization process of its policies may accelerate.

The Japanese economy maintained moderate growth in the first half of 2023, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 3.5% in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 3.4% in August, exceeding the central bank's target level of 2%. The labor market continued to improve, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% in August.

Important Event: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in September indicate that the policy committee will gradually shift to a hawkish stance. An increasing number of committee members express confidence that economic growth is "relatively stable," inflation may remain close to the target, and policy normalization should continue.

Market Reaction: Market participants generally expect that the Bank of Japan will end its years-long ultra-loose monetary policy by the end of this year and begin gradually raising interest rates in 2024. The yen exchange rate has been fluctuating in a depreciation channel since April, putting pressure on Japan's import inflation.

Expert Opinion: JPMorgan analysts indicated that the minutes from the Bank of Japan's September meeting show that the policy committee will gradually shift towards a hawkish stance. Several members of the Bank of Japan expressed that they would like to see the results of the quarterly Tankan survey, scheduled to be released this Wednesday, to confirm that it is time to "return to a monetary policy stance of raising policy interest rates" and set it to be "closer to the neutral rate."

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has determined that DePIN tokens are "essentially" not subject to the jurisdiction of securities laws.

Background: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently issued a rare "no-action letter," clearly stating that the 2Z token of the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) project DoubleZero is not subject to securities law jurisdiction, bringing a significant regulatory breakthrough for the cryptocurrency industry. This move marks a fundamental shift in the attitude of U.S. regulators towards functional tokens and is expected to promote industry innovation.

Policy Content: The SEC pointed out in the letter that the design and purpose of the 2Z token is intended to support the operation of the DePIN network, rather than being issued for investment purposes. Token holders do not have the right to receive profit dividends or other forms of returns from DoubleZero. The SEC believes that the 2Z token does not meet the definition of a security and is therefore "in essence" not subject to securities laws. This decision will take effect on September 29, 2025.

Market Reaction: Industry insiders generally believe that the SEC's move has injected new vitality into the cryptocurrency industry. The founder of DoubleZero stated that this decision has cleared regulatory hurdles for DePIN projects, benefiting the long-term development of the network. Cryptocurrency investors welcome the SEC's open attitude and look forward to more functional tokens gaining regulatory approval.

Expert Opinion: Former SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce supports this decision, believing that regulatory agencies should collaborate with businesses to promote tokenization and create a favorable environment for emerging technologies. She emphasized that the market value of tokenized securities is expected to reach $2 trillion by 2030, necessitating a flexible regulatory framework. Cryptocurrency legal experts state that the U.S. must immediately clarify cryptocurrency regulation, or it will face serious consequences from the outflow of innovation.

2. The U.S. Senate will vote again on September 30 on the bill to avoid a government shutdown.

Background: The U.S. government is facing a crisis of another shutdown due to Congress's failure to reach a consensus on the appropriations bill. If the bipartisan negotiations do not pass the spending bill by midnight on September 30, millions of federal employees may be affected. A government shutdown would freeze all legislative activities, including the deliberation of cryptocurrency regulation bills.

Policy Content: The Senate will vote on a temporary spending bill on September 30. The bill aims to provide short-term funding for the federal government to avoid a shutdown on October 1. Republicans want to tie the spending bill to immigration policy, while Democrats insist on separating the two issues. The widening divide between the two sides increases the risk of a government shutdown.

Market Reaction: The cryptocurrency market is highly focused on the uncertainty brought by this event regarding regulatory developments and the release of U.S. economic data. If the government shuts down, regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC will enter a "severely limited" operational state, and all new rule-making and enforcement actions are expected to cease. The release of key economic data such as employment reports and consumer price indices will also be hindered, potentially exacerbating market volatility.

Expert Opinion: Analysts point out that the lack of official data means that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to assess whether to further cut interest rates based on "gold standard" data before the October meeting. Historical experience indicates that a shutdown may exacerbate uncertainty surrounding the release of economic data, necessitating stronger contingency plans to address similar risks in the future. BiyaPay analysts advise investors to remain cautious during periods of high volatility and to manage their positions and risks appropriately.

3. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suspends trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum treasury company QMMM stocks.

Background: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) threw a heavy punch late at night on September 29, announcing an immediate suspension of trading in QMMM Holdings' stock. QMMM is a cryptocurrency treasury company that holds a large amount of digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC's action is not only a blow to individual companies but also a stern warning against the entire "crypto treasury" craze and the market manipulation incited by social media.

Policy Content: The SEC pointed out in the suspension order that QMMM Company has serious public disclosure deficiencies, including failing to adequately disclose key information such as its cryptocurrency asset holdings, acquisition plans, and business prospects. The SEC stated that some of the company's statements may seriously mislead investors and constitute potential securities fraud. The suspension order is effective from September 29 and will last for 10 trading days.

Market Reaction: The QMMM stock price plummeted by over 40% following the issuance of the suspension order. Cryptocurrency treasury concept stocks fell across the board, reflecting the market's concerns over the SEC's stringent regulation. However, some analysts believe that this move is beneficial for rectifying market order and curbing speculative behavior lacking fundamental support.

Expert Opinion: Former SEC executive John Stark stated that the SEC's move aims to maintain market fairness and transparency, protecting investor interests. He pointed out that cryptocurrency treasury companies should adhere to strict disclosure requirements to ensure that investors can obtain sufficient information to make rational decisions. Cryptocurrency legal experts have called for regulators to maintain a positive interaction with the industry, leaving room for innovation while maintaining market order.