Why Am I Against Value Investing? Let me explain with an example $LULU $EL

In the photo we see a distribution phase. Value investors or so-called gurus who don’t understand technical analysis but dismiss it by saying “TA doesn’t work” may argue that multiples are cheap and it’s time to buy. But as I always say, technical analysis is 70% of this game! When you buy this way, distribution has already happened to you, and the stock can keep falling. Cemeteries are full of “value investors” who tried to dip buy El stock! That’s why I’m against value investing.

It’s also a mistake to draw a 3–5 year outlook on a stock, even a good one. Nobody knows what will happen in the future! Remember META and NVDA in 2022. If you think back to crises before 2022, that drawdown wasn’t even a real crash. $CSCO only surpassed its dot-com bubble peak this year and it’s been just about five months above it. Nobody can endure that, not even Buffett. That’s why I can’t subscribe to a theory with such a false background.

If a stock shows a distribution pattern, stay away! Let it fall wherever it wants don’t be afraid of missing the bottom. You’ll recognize the bottom and consolidation when they form. Indexes have been rallying for a long time, which makes value investors comfortable, since every drop eventually rebounds. But keep in mind: stocks should be checked quarter by quarter, bought above certain averages, and sold below certain averages. Otherwise, the same accounts that spark your excitement today won’t be around when you go bankrupt tomorrow. Remember the tariff crash!