Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a certain degree of pullback, raising concerns among many investors. However, upon analysis from multiple perspectives, we can see that the current market conditions do not exhibit the typical characteristics of a bull run's end.

First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance has shifted, and it is expected that the US dollar will show a weakening trend in the next six months. Secondly, the bull run in the US stock market is expected to continue until mid-2026. Furthermore, the overall sentiment in the current encryption market is relatively cautious, and the pressure from profit-taking is not significant.

Additionally, some important positive factors have not yet been fully realized. For example, the approval of altcoin ETFs, relevant policies from the White House and the SEC, etc., could become significant driving forces for the market in the future. It is worth noting that the current market environment is relatively stable, and the likelihood of significant black swan events occurring in the short term is low.

Considering the above factors, we can infer that the current market adjustment is likely just a consolidation phase, preparing for a strong rally in the fourth quarter. As for the future of Bitcoin, there are two possible directions of development:

One scenario is that if the US stock market experiences a pullback, Bitcoin may see a significant drop, potentially falling below $100,000. However, this might be to absorb market liquidity and lay the groundwork for a subsequent rebound.

Another scenario is that if the US stock market continues to remain strong, Bitcoin may consolidate around $108,000 to $109,000, before making a direct push towards the $120,000 level.

Regardless, market fluctuations are always present, and investors need to remain rational, manage risks well, and closely monitor market trends and changes in various fundamental factors.