ETH's New High: A Market Momentum Shift That Worries Me

I've been watching this market closely, and damn, that 22,400 BTC to ETH swap last week was a big deal. Not just another day in crypto. This whale move pushed Ethereum to record highs, but I'm getting that uneasy feeling we've seen before.

Bitcoin's been looking weak lately, and I don't think it's bottomed out. The leverage situation is frankly terrifying - perpetual futures open interest hit a two-year high above 310,000 BTC. That's $34 billion on the line! We've seen a 41,607 BTC increase in just two months, with 13,472 BTC piling on just this past weekend.

What really gets me is the funding rate jump from 3% to 11%. People are piling into longs while prices barely move - classic trap behavior.

This reminds me exactly of summer 2023 and 2024, both times ending in brutal liquidation cascades. I was caught in one of those - never again. This time the leverage peak came later in the month, which probably means we're in for an extended consolidation phase where early buyers get absolutely wrecked.

Historically, when ETH hits new highs, it often signals the crypto market's peak. Look at 2017 and 2021 - the pattern's nearly identical. ETH breaks out, altcoins pump, Bitcoin stagnates as demand fades... then everything collapses.

But BTC dominance is still 58.6%, much higher than previous cycle peaks under 40%. So maybe this time is different? I doubt it. The smart play is reducing exposure until this excessive leverage clears out.

The big trading platforms won't tell you this, but they're making a killing on liquidations. Meanwhile, retail traders are about to learn a painful lesson in market cycles. I'm keeping my powder dry for now.