Will Bitcoin reach a kismet crossroads in October-November 2025? With the release of 2.9 billion Dollar tokens + a policy vacuum + geopolitical bombs, will 90% of investors sink?!

Take a look! The recent market feels a bit unsettled. Looking at the data and news, it seems that Bitcoin might face a "big trial" in October-November 2025. Historical patterns and unexpected factors are overlapping, and a triple blow is approaching. If retail investors don't prepare, they might literally be left exposed. It's scary.

1. Policy Stagnation: The FED remains inactive, Trump's grand promises are empty, and institutional investors are on the sidelines.

After the FRB meeting, it feels like expectations for interest rate cuts have faded. Mr. Trump is shouting about a "5 trillion dollar debt expansion," but even though the country's debt is increasing, that money is not flowing into the crypto space at all. Although the SEC hinted at the approval of an Ethereum ETF, the funding rate only rose by 15%. Where has the excitement from the Bitcoin ETF approval gone? Without the benefits of policy, large investors are just watching. Bitcoin is in a standstill. The direction is unclear.

2. Geopolitical Black Swan: Has the Image of Bitcoin as a "Safe Haven" Collapsed? Gold is the True King!

On October 1, 2025, Bitcoin suddenly fell by 3%, with 180,000 liquidations and $629 million evaporated. Why? Risk assets were sold due to conflicts in the Middle East. Interestingly, on the same day, gold rose by 1.2% to reach a new high. Everyone used to praise Bitcoin as "digital gold," but in actual crises, gold proved strong while Bitcoin was merely a younger sibling. The market questions: in times of turmoil, who believes in the "coins in the air"?

3. $2.9 billion time bomb: The wave of token releases may blow away retail investors.

Policies and geopolitics are a "slow-acting poison," but the token release in October is a real nuclear bomb. Tokens worth $2.99 billion are scheduled to be released, with SOL at $746 million, WLD at $202 million, and ZRO even worse, with a release rate of 23.13%. Once these tokens hit the market, the sudden increase in supply may cause prices to "halve." What’s even scarier is that if one coin crashes, investors panic and sell their other holdings, triggering a chain reaction that could collapse the entire market. There’s no escape for anyone.

Four, November's "Bear Curse": A return of the historical pattern, the Bitcoin winter era?

Looking at historical data, November seems to be a "disaster month" for Bitcoin. In the past 11 years, there have been declines 8 times, averaging a drop of 4.39%. This year the market has changed, but technical indicators have already formed a "death cross"—the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day line for the first time since November 2024. To make matters worse, the acquisition cost for short-term holders has fallen below $110,000. If it doesn't rise, they will have no choice but to cut their losses, and the situation is worsening.

5. Where are the opportunities? Secrets to "weathering the storm"

High risk, but there are opportunities in crises! Three secret strategies to survive October and November:

Watching Bitcoin ETF: If there are net inflows of $500 million to $1.5 billion in November, there is a possibility of market rebound.

Attention to the FED's actions: If there is a rate cut of more than 25 basis points, it will be a festival for risk assets.

Choosing Coins for "Release Strategy": Select BTC and ETH with low release rates and high institutional investor holdings, and avoid "release minefield" coins!

Finally, a heartfelt piece of advice: The crypto market in October-November is not a place for "easy profits"; it is a battlefield where "the weak get eaten." Whether bullish or bearish, do not use excessive leverage and always set a stop-loss line. This volatility may exceed your imagination...