The global financial markets are eagerly awaiting the important speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Just as US stocks have recently hit a new high, Wall Street analysts are closely monitoring Powell's remarks, hoping to catch a glimpse of the future direction of monetary policy.

After the Fed's first rate cut this year, the stock market immediately saw a surge, which intensified investors' follow on the future rate cut timetable and magnitude. Current market expectations suggest there may be two rate cuts in the second half of 2025, but the overall pace of rate cuts may be slower than generally anticipated.

Currently, the U.S. economy is showing a complex situation: on one hand, the unemployment rate has risen, and the job-seeking cycle has extended; on the other hand, the inflation rate is close to 3%, still above the Fed's target of 2%. The Fed faces the dual challenge of balancing inflation control and employment market stability, and it seems to be leaning more towards following employment issues.

Despite the recent tariffs not causing a significant rise in inflation, Powell has stated that this may only be a temporary phenomenon. Considering past mistakes in inflation assessments, the Fed is particularly cautious this time, emphasizing that it will closely follow economic data. It is expected that Powell may continue to take a cautious stance in this speech, paving the way for gradual policy adjustments, aiming neither to provoke market panic nor to easily commit to large-scale easing policies.

In this uncertain economic environment, investors need to remain vigilant and closely follow the Fed's policy signals while combining various market analyses to make informed investment decisions.