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The global market awaits Powell to "indicate the direction"; will the dovish signals arrive as expected?
After the first interest rate cut of the year was implemented last week, global investors are focusing on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, eagerly searching for any clues regarding the timing of the next rate cut.
Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event in Rhode Island at 00:35 Beijing time on Thursday. This speech is crucial as it comes right after the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut decision, which has propelled a new round of increases in global stock markets.
Although historical experience suggests that Powell may not release any groundbreaking signals this time, the market will still analyze his statements word by word to assess the future path and pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Currently, the interest rate futures market expects that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining two meetings in October and December. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's own projections suggest that its pace of rate cuts may be more cautious than the market expects.
Analysts point out that Powell may be inclined to continue cutting interest rates within the year to prevent a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Last week, he attributed the reasons for the rate cuts to signs of weakness in the labor market and stated that this move falls under the category of "risk management." Recent data shows that U.S. job growth has noticeably slowed, the unemployment rate is gradually rising, and the time required for workers to find reemployment has also lengthened.
However, another challenge cannot be ignored: inflation levels have risen again, with the latest CPI year-on-year increase approaching 3%, deviating from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Policymakers are facing a dual risk - to maintain price stability while ensuring a healthy job market.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy balance seems to lean more towards "protecting employment." Most officials judge that the inflationary pressures caused by former President Trump's new tariff measures will be temporary. However, Powell also admitted that there is no foolproof strategy in decision-making and that it is necessary to remain highly vigilant about inflation trends.
It is expected that Powell will not directly provide a clear commitment in this speech, but will systematically elaborate on his assessment of the economic outlook, providing key basis for future policy direction.