The U.S. government released the annual non-farm payroll data revision at 10 PM tonight, drawing significant attention from economists and investors. The data shows that the employment level has decreased by 911,000 as of March 2025, far exceeding the market expectation of a decline of 700,000. The release of this data undoubtedly casts a shadow over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

From a macroeconomic perspective, this significant downward revision reflects that the U.S. labor market may be more fragile than previously assessed. The notable decrease in employment numbers not only suggests that business production activities may be contracting, but also indicates insufficient economic growth momentum, and could even signal potential recession risks.

This data revision is likely to have a profound impact on the macroeconomic policy of the United States. The Federal Reserve may be forced to reassess its monetary policy stance and adopt more accommodative measures to address the weakness in the labor market. Originally, the market expected a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but now even the possibility of a one-time 50 basis point cut cannot be ruled out, in hopes of stimulating economic growth and improving employment conditions.

Historically, lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data often triggers volatility in financial markets. For example, in August 2025, non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, far below expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar exchange rate and international gold prices reaching an all-time high. This significant downward revision of data may further weaken the dollar, drive funds towards safe-haven assets, and potentially trigger severe fluctuations in the stock market.

However, before making any judgments, we need to remain calm and rational. Market participants should wait for the official statement from the Federal Reserve to gain more specific information about the future direction of policy. This revision of the non-farm data is undoubtedly an important economic signal, but it is only one component of the overall economic picture. We also need to consider other economic indicators comprehensively to make a thorough assessment of the health of the U.S. economy.

In the coming weeks, economists and policymakers will closely monitor the subsequent economic data releases to determine whether the downward revision of the employment data indicates broader economic issues. At the same time, investors need to remain vigilant, closely watching market trends and adjusting their investment strategies in a timely manner to respond to potential market fluctuations.