Large funds and retail investors are like tourists waiting in line to ride the roller coaster, collectively waiting to enter a position.



In line, everyone follows the amusement park's plan, moving forward in an orderly manner, their emotions largely the same: anticipation, joy, and fantasy. However, when it's about to be their turn to enter a position, emotions vary: some are excited, some are eager, and some hesitate at the last moment.

This is very similar to investing. When we identify the trend of large funds entering a position, we will go through two stages:
1. Queue up for the roller coaster: Follow the bullish trend.
2. After getting on the roller coaster: Everyone has different emotional reactions.
In the second stage, some may want to take profits, some may want to push further, some may be frustrated for missing out, and some may be fearful due to the surge. Simply put, the goals are no longer aligned. However, regardless, the greatest rewards always come from the first stage where certainty and consistency exist.

From April to early July, the U.S. stock market has been in a consistent bull market. With the approach of some key data and tariff deadlines, investors have transitioned from queuing for a roller coaster ride to actually riding it, and now they have reached the stage where the roller coaster is climbing its initial slope. At this moment, the consistency of sentiment is disappearing, and the market may change direction at any time, even reversing multiple times. Plans cannot keep up with changes, so patience is key.

The capital market is not afraid of stable risks, but rather of the unknown uncertainties that exceed expectations.
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