As soon as the market has a big pump, there are predictions about how much it will rise in the future, with a bull run exploding.

As long as the market continues to fall for a few days, there will be predictions about how much it will drop next, and the bull run is about to end.
In the past couple of days, the leading sheep's market has pulled back a bit, and people are starting to say that this round is a trap for more buying, and there will be a big drop next. When it rises, they see it as bullish, and when it falls, they see it as bearish. Is there still a need for professional analysis? Isn't it enough to just buy and sell based on the market's movements? The answer is obviously no, otherwise, anyone could make money.
A bull run is a relay race, not a 100-meter sprint. Each round of the rise in the crypto market has its inherent operating logic. Grasping this logic is often more crucial than just watching the charts; it can indicate which segment the funds are currently flowing into and where you should start planning your layout. To survive for the long term in the crypto space, it relies on thinking about the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than judging future prices based on short-term market trends.
For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety of holding positions actually always exists, especially now when they have just seen hope and their accounts show unrealized gains. Many people fail to achieve big results because they encounter psychological problems during the consolidation at high levels, leading to impulsive operations. Either they listen to others saying they want to make a small swing, or they hear someone say they want to open a short position, or they hear someone say to chase certain worthless coins. They always listen to others, but have no independent thinking and operational plan.
Not long ago, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and people in the community began predicting that ETH would reach 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most of those who are optimistic about ETH now were complaining about ETH a few months ago and praising SOL, thinking that this second place is garbage and would definitely drop below 1k. As seasoned traders, we've experienced too many of these scenarios. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their opinions, but some shouts in public settings are profit-driven. If you blindly follow along with real money without thinking, subscription fees can earn you a little, commission rebates can earn you a little, and liquidation losses can earn you a little. Have you heard of trading with both hands?
If you don't, just try a few times and you'll understand.
We talked about the reasons for the market's stagnation a long time ago. First, the interest rate cut cycle of 2025 has not yet begun; second, the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, and the market's trading methods are completely different from before. The current timing is the most torturous; experienced investors know that when the price reaches this level, it is the turning point where the bulls and bears call each other fools. The market at this critical point is like this: it allows those who firmly believe in a rise to see hope, while also encouraging brave short sellers to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there is no glimmer of hope, how could anyone place a bet?
Regarding market trend analysis, we've actually talked a lot about this before. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not yet peaked. The daily chart shows a short-term pullback, and it should continue to fluctuate and pull back in the coming days. I will wait for the market's psychological support levels at integer points to see when a reversal signal appears. For BTC, I’m looking at 11W, and for ETH, 4K. If this value appears, even if it breaks below, I will still activate my short-term small position to enter the market and make some small fluctuations.
As for the long-term positions, the necessary adjustments have been completed, and the bullets for short positions are ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held in hand have fairly normal profits, and as for how the final profits will turn out, we can only leave it to time to verify.
Unknowingly, we have arrived in mid-August. BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the lows of early April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull tail market starts, it usually takes 5-6 months to reach the peak. This means that if we rely on the previous cycle's trend and seek a sword by carving a boat at this moment, the final peak may appear in the next two months.
Although some well-known analysts believe that, given the current economic environment and institutional holdings, this round of bull market cycle will extend into the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH may even experience a "long and exhausting" bull run, this statement has a certain probability. However, many retail investors actually do not hold these two leading coins. Even experienced investors were left behind when ETH experienced a significant pullback in the first half of the year. Therefore, in response to this expectation, I suggest that you prepare a data model based on your own position. First set an expected target selling price, and under the premise of ensuring profits, sell off in stages using DCA. Even if the highest price you expected does not materialize, leaving part of your position to hold these two coins long-term may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, you will be given a big surprise?
What everyone is most afraid of is that there will be no obvious altcoin season next, or that the altcoins in hand will be short-lived, or that they will be unable to recover. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. Previously, I have discussed this a few times, and I have also chatted intermittently with some friends in the comments section, and everyone thinks that the probability of an altcoin bull run appearing is still quite high. But if you haven't positioned yourself in mainstream altcoins by now, then the coming time will likely have little to do with you.
Why do I still believe there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I've organized my thoughts and will analyze the following four directions on why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still worth looking forward to.
First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus is still clear: every round of bull run is driven by BTC attracting funds, which then flow to ETH and finally spread to smaller market cap altcoins. This is not an artificial operation, but a natural phenomenon resulting from the combined effects of market consensus and human greed. This cyclical law of fund flow will not change due to individual will. As long as the market still has a consensus on the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets, and as long as investors still experience greed and fear, the altcoin season will certainly come.
You might say that it is currently a bull run led by institutions, and institutions look down on those altcoins. Having experienced the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly understand that the world is just a makeshift stage, and institutions vary in size; institutions are also greedy. Is the fund under Trump considered an institution? Is Meitu Xiuxiu an institution? Even our disguised GJ team, are they an institution? The competition among institutions creates market fluctuations, and the competition among institutions will also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is heat and liquidity, capital tends to seek profit.
Capital always chases the maximization of returns, and a large amount of institutional funds has clearly accelerated the layout of the crypto market, especially since May, when there has been an unprecedented influx of funds into ETH ecosystem-related projects, which has directly increased market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach high levels, large-scale capital input will push up coin prices, but the investment return rates continue to decline. At this time, capital will inevitably turn to smaller market cap altcoins that are easier to achieve huge short-term returns. This balance of returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been reminded several times long ago that institutional funds are most likely to flow into mainstream altcoins with higher market capitalization, basic applications, high market holding, good narratives, and certain years of existence, especially those with US attributes that meet the ETF list.
Secondly, technology is the key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, as market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology drives and conceptual narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing ample space for the speculation of altcoin markets. Despite the emergence of inscriptions and symbols in 2024, the MEME craze has already sacrificed a large number of retail investors, but entering 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in various fields such as high-performance supply chain expansion solutions (L1 public chains), the combination of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). These areas will provide new market expectations, making it easier to attract incremental funds from outside the market, in search of the next potential asset for a hundredfold growth.
Thirdly, reviewing the market trends from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many high-quality mainstream altcoins have already completed their chip accumulation, especially new public chains or high market cap functional coins. Large funds, through a year and a half of pumping and dumping, should have completed their low-position chip layout, which gives me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.
Referencing the mainstream coins like XRP, TRX, SUI, BNB from 2024, and then observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE, etc. in 2025, if you can firmly hold on at this moment, as long as you don't have overly high expectations and patiently wait for market sentiment changes and opportunity resonance, there is a high probability of steadily and easily capturing a 1-2x rise. However, it needs to be reminded that now is not the best time to enter the market, and friends who have been paying attention to my updates for a long time will understand the reasons behind this.
Of course, you can also choose to position yourself in some leading projects in the ETH layer2 ecosystem or other sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, etc. However, these types of coins that are dependent on market hot spots and capital rotation carry much higher risks compared to the previously mentioned high market cap established projects.
As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX and similar ones are not recommended, it's because they have already been pumped in 2024, and the room for rise is limited, making the cost-performance ratio not very high.
Fourth, from a macroeconomic perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is close to 95%. The trade war tariffs have also been postponed, and a clear trend of global monetary easing is emerging, with major central banks continuously releasing liquidity. As I write this, I have also seen news of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine discussing a ceasefire. Besides the interest rate hike in Japan, I can't think of any other black swan events that might occur in the future, so over the next few months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.
When ETH hits the 5000 mark and experiences a significant surge (similar to when BTC broke through 73,000 and surged towards 100,000), and several altcoins rise by 100%-300% in a single day in the market, retail investors will inevitably experience FOMO. The mainstream altcoins with higher consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in such an environment.
The signs of this situation have actually already appeared, and the rise of OKB can be seen as a starting signal. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme pullback of 20%-30%, I firmly believe that the overall direction will not change. The bull run is not over yet, it just needs to be extended, and the high peaks of BTC and ETH are likely to appear again. A localized altcoin bull run is bound to come.
Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone's personality and holding situation are different. Therefore, I would still advise you to carefully refer to rational decision-making. Only after you have seriously thought through your operational plan and simulated your operation plan can you possibly seize your bull run profits in the end among the frenzy.
Remember, the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends who have high cognition. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments. #机构以太坊储备破1000万枚