Market focus on Bitcoin 109,000 and Ethereum 2,500 dollars, possibility of interest rate drop in July decreases

Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has become the focus of the market. Despite recent inflation data cooling down, several Federal Reserve officials, including the chair, have stated that more time is needed to observe to ensure that rising prices do not evolve into sustained inflation. Officials believe that the current monetary policy is in a good position and are inclined to consider a rate drop later this fall or even later. This cautious attitude stems from reliance on future data and a careful assessment of external factors.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, led by technology and bank stocks. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index closed near historical highs. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 7-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.0%. The U.S. dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets, marking a new stage for digital assets in Hong Kong. The policy clearly states that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital. Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy by improving its regulatory framework, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness.

The price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which may exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently mainly driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are on a downward trend, indicating that the market lacks the momentum to break new highs before a demand recovery.

Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase. Currently, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is 2.22, which is below the historically overvalued range, indicating there is still room for growth. If MVRV momentum strengthens, along with support from ETF inflows, the price of Bitcoin could potentially break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach over $165,000.

For Ethereum, analysis indicates that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to initiate a stronger rebound. Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency of the United States directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept cryptocurrencies as mortgage collateral, promoting the emergence of a "home-buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data (as of June 27, 12:00)

• Bitcoin: $107,432 (Year-to-date +14.64%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40 (Year-to-date -26.91%), daily spot trading volume is $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 20.1 million USD.

ETF Flow (as of June 26)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (continuous net inflow for 13 days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts.
• Yield Guild Games, SingularityNET, and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance will unlock tokens.

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list: adds AVAX and MORPHO and removes LDO and OP
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid and started purchasing HYPE.
• A certain whale deposited 1613 Bitcoins into the trading platform, worth 173 million USD.
• Aqua 1 announced a $100 million strategic investment in WLFI governance coin.
• Huaxing Capital announces 100 million USD to enter the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sectors.
• GameStop raised $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC.
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token, with the first round of airdrops accounting for 10% of the total supply.
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.