Price trend development and probability analysis for the next hour

Overall, the current market presents a very interesting contradictory situation: the technical momentum indicator ( MACD ) is bearish, but the actual liquidity structure of the market ( order book ) shows extremely strong bullish support. In this case, the influence of liquidity (order book) usually outweighs that of the lagging technical indicators.
Main trend: Bottom sideways consolidation under the support of large buy orders.
* High probability scenario (75%): sideways fluctuation, unable to effectively decline.
Due to the presence of a monster-level buy wall near 115,205, it is almost impossible for the price to effectively break below this level in the next 3 hours. The selling pressure from short positions will be completely absorbed by this buy wall. Therefore, the most likely price movement will be a very narrow range consolidation between 115,200 and 115,400 dollars. The market will wait for this massive buy order to be digested, canceled, or for new forces to enter to break the stalemate.
* Medium probability scenario (20%): slight rebound.
After confirming the validity of the support below, some short-sellers chose to cover their positions, while new buyers considered this an safe entry point, leading to a slight technical rebound aimed at testing the short-term resistance level above, around $115,500.
* Low probability scenario (5%): Buy wall cancellation, price drop.
If this buy order of 13.2 BTC is a "spoofing order" and is suddenly canceled, it will trigger an instantaneous collapse of market confidence, leading to a rapid price drop. However, before it is canceled, we must treat it as a real and effective strong support.
Summary:
In the next 3 hours, despite the bearish MACD, the space for price decline has been completely sealed off by a huge buy wall. Therefore, the market will shift from a pullback to a bottom sideways consolidation. The core observation point is the movement of the buy wall at 115,205, which will dominate the market trend in the coming hours.