Crypto Market Weekly Report: Market Weak During Double Festival Period, Q1 2025 May Welcome a Rise Trend

Market Overview

This week, the crypto market has shown a downward trend under the influence of the Christmas holiday. The market sentiment index has slightly risen from 7% to 10%, but it is still in the extreme fear zone. It is worth noting that despite the overall market weakness, USDC, which is primarily focused on the U.S. market, has achieved a growth of 1.91%, indicating that institutional funds continue to enter the market, injecting a certain level of confidence.

The DeFi sector's TVL slightly decreased by 0.37% this week to $52.7 billion, but projects such as the gun pool with stablecoin yields performed impressively. The overall supply of stablecoins continues to grow, indicating that the underlying liquidity is still flowing in, and stable yield projects like the gun pool are in high demand.

The AI Agent track continues to attract significant attention from the market, with a total scale reaching 10.9 billion USD. The aipool model, which combines TEE technology, has become a new focal point in the market, expected to become a new asset issuance method following "inscription", showcasing the development trend of deep integration of AI and blockchain technology.

Due to the impact of the holiday and the overall decline in the market, the Meme coin sector performed poorly this week, with a noticeable decrease in investor participation and capital inflow, while market enthusiasm has temporarily shifted to other sectors.

The public chain sector shows strong resilience against declines. Stacks has achieved an important milestone with sBTC, BOB is advancing the development of the BitVM Bridge, and Taiko has launched a new round of ecological plans, indicating that major public chains continue to make efforts in technological innovation and ecological construction.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its sluggish trend during the New Year's holiday. Investors are advised to maintain a defensive allocation and increase the proportion of top assets, while moderately participating in high-yield gun pool projects. In the long term, the market generally anticipates a pump in the first quarter of 2025, with AI Agent and DeFi gun pool projects worthy of special attention.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index has risen from 7% last week to 10%, still in the extreme fear range. Altcoins have performed worse than the benchmark index this week, showing a significant decline. Due to the Christmas holiday, liquidity has sharply decreased, leading to increased price volatility in the market, which makes sudden rises and falls more likely. Given the current market structure, it is expected that Altcoins will remain in sync with the benchmark index in the short term, with a low probability of independent trends.

When altcoins are in an extreme panic zone, the market is often at a stage bottom and may reverse upwards at any time.

Hot Tracks

AI Agent

This week, the overall market is in a downward trend, and various sectors are also in a declining state. Although most token prices in the AI Agent sector are also in a downward trend this week, they have the highest discussion in the market. This week, there has been a lot of discussion about the development of the aipool model, which combines AI Agent and TEE, in the future crypto market and its impact on DeFi.

One of the boosters for the periodic rise in the crypto market is the emergence of new asset issuance methods. With the rapid integration of AI and encryption technology, aipool has become a highly popular asset issuance method at this stage, and it is also a continuation of "money-making FI" at the beginning of 2024. If the aipool asset issuance method is widely accepted by the market, we will soon witness a small wave of asset issuance frenzy brought about by the aipool model, so we should focus on aipool-type projects.

DeFi track

TVL rise ranking

The top 5 projects by TVL growth in the past week (excluding projects with smaller TVL, with a standard of over 30 million USD):

1. Resolv: 82.04%
2. USDX Money: 74.25%
3. Usual: 55.56%
4. Hashnote: 52.54%
5. Spectra: 51.81%

Resolv completed an important technical upgrade this week, successfully transforming into an Omnichain project by integrating LayerZero and StarGate technologies. USDX Money has completed a new UI/UX upgrade and launched a new liquidity pool on Curve Finance. Usual secured $10 million in Series A funding from Binance Labs and others, and launched a new product UsualM. Hashnote has reached a strategic partnership with CoreDAO to introduce an innovative Bitcoin dual staking model. Spectra has launched new governance contracts on the Base mainnet and introduced Gauges and an incentivize page.

Overall performance of the track

The market value of stablecoins is steadily increasing, with USDC rising by 1.91% to $42.9 billion. The total TVL of DeFi projects has slightly decreased by 0.37% to $52.7 billion, mainly affected by the Christmas holiday. Projects like Machine Gun Pool and other stablecoin yield programs have performed well, attracting a large number of users to participate.

public chain

The top 5 public chain TVL rises in the market over the past week:

1. Stacks: 16.95%
2. BOB: 12.81%
3. Taiko: 4.22%
4. Cardano: 2.94%
5. Sei: 1.23%

Stacks completes the first phase of sBTC with a deposit cap of 1000 BTC. BOB collaborates with Fiamma Labs to develop the BitVM Bridge prototype. Taiko launches a new round of ecological plan Trailblazers Season 3. Cardano highlights the technical advantages of the slashing mechanism. Sei releases a significant technological breakthrough called "Giga," greatly enhancing processing capacity.

rise ranking overview

Top 5 tokens with the highest rise in the market over the past week:

1. ZEN (Horizen): 124.91%
2. MOCA (Moca Network): 108.87%
3. PHA (Phala Network): 105.84%
4. AGLD (Adventure Gold): 73.77%
5. MOVE (Movement): 66.81%

Horizen successfully deployed the 2.0 Devnet testnet. Moca Network successfully integrated with SK Planet applications. Phala Network officially launched version 2.0. Adventure Gold interacted with the community through a Christmas-themed event. Movement launched several innovative products based on its technology stack.

social media hotspot

This week, the most关注度 on social media is the L1 project. Due to the Christmas holidays, market liquidity has significantly decreased, leading to a general decline, but the drop in various public chains is relatively small. When the overall market is down, public chains often perform better than other sectors, and investors tend to allocate funds to various public chains aside from BTC and ETH.

Overall Overview of Market Themes

According to weekly return rate statistics, the SocialFi sector performed the best, while the RWA sector performed the worst. The main token in the SocialFi sector, TON, rose by 6.3% against the trend. The main tokens in the RWA sector, OM, ONDO, and MKR, experienced significant declines.

Next Week Outlook

Next week enters the New Year's holiday, and the market may continue its sluggish trend. The machine gun pool projects in the DeFi sector are popular, and the AI Agent sector continues to attract attention. Suggestions for investors:

1. Maintain a defensive allocation, increase the proportion of top assets such as BTC and ETH.
2. You can moderately participate in high-yield machine gun pool DeFi projects
3. Stay cautious, strictly control positions, and manage risks well.

In the long term, the market generally expects that the first quarter of 2025 may welcome a pump, and AI Agent and DeFi machine gun pool projects are worth focusing on.