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Ethereum breaks through $2827 to reach a 15-week high, with 1.8 billion short positions facing liquidation risk.
Ethereum price breaks through $2,827 to hit a new 15-week high, the market experiences an intense Bull vs Bear Battle.
On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through $2,827, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this breakthrough, a liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions is brewing. In this seemingly coincidental market movement, the trading patterns of a mysterious large player have become a key clue to interpreting market sentiment.
According to on-chain data, a certain anonymous address has completed two precise operations within 44 days:
Such operations are not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest (OI) has first broken the 40 billion USD mark, and the market leverage ratio is approaching a critical point. The current liquidity distribution presents a subtle balance: there is a long liquidation risk of 2 billion USD concentrated around 2,600 USD, while there is a short liquidation risk of 1.8 billion USD lurking above 2,900 USD. This bull vs bear battle is reminiscent of the CDO market during the financial crisis—any directional breakout could trigger a chain reaction.
As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses surged by 70%, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, a certain Layer 2 network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses), becoming the growth engine, far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This "Layer 2 feeding back to the mainnet" model is completely different from the narrative logic of the DeFi summer of the 2020s.
Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model has shown signs of concern:
This contradiction is manifested in on-chain data: the proportion of long-term holders (over 1 year) has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has surged by 47%. When technological upgrades fail to translate into profits for holders, ecological prosperity instead becomes a driver of value dilution.
From a technical perspective, the current market situation hides mysteries:
At the macro level, geopolitical situations and expectations of Federal Reserve policies constitute a dual impact. Interest rate futures show that the market's expectation for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 has reached 79%. If the actual path deviates, the crypto market may be the first to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, some analysts warn that if the real-world asset (RWA) narrative fails to materialize in the third quarter, Ethereum may face a significant risk of market cap loss.
Ethereum is facing multiple challenges and opportunities:
Some analyses suggest that after breaking through the congestion zone of $2,800, Ethereum may initiate a strong rise to $5,232. However, caution is needed, as the essence of this capital game remains a liquidity battle driven by leverage—when the $1.8 billion short position becomes potential fuel, the market will ultimately verify who is steering the trend and who may face risks.