The largest "Triple Witching Day" in US stock history is approaching, and the crypto market is filled with a strong sense of wait-and-see.

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, which was in line with expectations but overall the stance is hawkish. Officials have differing views on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged. Inflation is close to the 2% target but has not been fully achieved, and an early rate cut could lead to a rebound.

This Friday, approximately $6.5 trillion in U.S. stock options and derivatives contracts will expire, and this "Triple Witching Day" event may lay the groundwork for volatility in the market next week. Since May, intraday volatility in U.S. stocks has been relatively mild, thanks to the "pinning effect" created by a large volume of put options trading earlier this year. Analysts believe that this expiration date could become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors should be alert to potential market volatility risks.

A senior executive from a certain group recently stated that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve stage, with the focus shifting from "digital native" to "digital twin". He pointed out that the digital twin is the greatest innovation of distributed ledger technology, with stablecoins and asset tokenization being the most representative forms. Stablecoins are essentially currency tokenization, possessing both legal and technical attributes, and are considered the optimal form of currency at present, expected to play an important role in the future global financial system.

The crypto market has recently been sluggish, with Bitcoin's price remaining largely unchanged over the past three days, and liquidations in the last 24 hours totaling less than 100 million USD. Analysts believe that rising geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in risk-averse sentiment, resulting in higher demand for traditional safe-haven assets and a decrease in demand for risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin is constrained by multiple moving average resistances near the 106,000 USD level, and trading volume is low, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment. A short-term breakthrough of resistance may challenge 112,000 USD, but current momentum is insufficient, which may lead to continued consolidation.

Many institutions point out that the market is characterized by low volatility, narrowing price ranges, and weakened on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors taking the lead. Some analysts warn that if demand continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin could retreat to the support level of $92,000, or even drop to $81,000.

Solana is currently oscillating in the $140-145 key support zone, considered a potential trend reversal point. Analysis suggests establishing long positions in the $128-140 range, with targets at $204.31, $229.01, and $258.45. If it breaks below the $140 support, it may accelerate downwards to $102-103. Conversely, breaking above $160-170 could reverse the bearish pattern, with upward targets of $180-$220.

In the crypto market, MEME coin LABUBU has dropped 23% in 24 hours, continuing its decline for three consecutive days, with its market value falling from $60 million to $27 million, possibly related to the price drop of physical toys. Within the Solana ecosystem, some new projects like Gorbagana and YOURSEL have quickly attracted attention, with their market value reaching tens of millions of dollars at one point. The BSC fund continues to buy altcoins as planned, with this round being $200,000, and the top three holdings are CAKE, LISTA, and SKYAI.

2. Key Data

• Bitcoin: $104,658, daily trading volume $17.204 billion
• Ethereum: $2,520.03, daily trading volume $9.922 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
• 24-hour liquidation data: 55,924 people liquidated, total amount $89.34 million

3. ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (net inflow for 8 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$19.0998 million (net inflow for 3 consecutive days)

4. Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform will delist multiple spot trading pairs.
• Lista DAO will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens, worth about 7 million US dollars.
• SPACE ID will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens, worth about 12 million US dollars.

Today's top 500 market cap gainers: Threshold (T) up 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) up 15.66%, StormX (STMX) up 14.77%, Sei (SEI) up 11.52%, Mythos (MYTH) up 9.51%.

5. Hot News

• Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits an 18-month low
• Semler Scientific appoints a Bitcoin Strategy Director, planning to hold 105,000 bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of surveyed institutions worldwide have used stablecoins for payments.
• Publicly traded companies hold over 768,500 Bitcoins, worth over $82 billion.
• Fidelity: The growth rate of the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has exceeded the daily new production.
• SOL Strategies submitted a registration statement to the U.S. SEC, planning to list on NASDAQ under the code "STKE".
• LGHL secures $600 million in funding to launch the HYPE treasury
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback plan.