Track real-time trends in the crypto world and seize the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, August 1, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning to all coin friends☀️hardcore fan daily attendance👍Like and make a fortune🍗🍗🌹🌹

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Today is the first day of August, let us welcome Crazy August! U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones down 0.74%, the S&P 500 down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite slightly down. Microsoft (MSFT.O) rose 3.9%, but the market capitalization failed to stabilize at $4 trillion. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 38.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 39.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 13.9%. The decision on interest rates has not changed, but the expectations of the entire market have been completely overturned; a few strong words from Powell extinguished hopes for a rate cut in September. All previous optimistic sentiments seem to have vanished overnight. The crypto market is down across the board, with Bitcoin and Ethereum quickly plunging in the short term, while our short positions set up in the evening have successfully met expectations. Pay attention to Yibo for timely updates.

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Bitcoin began a downward trend after rising to around 118848 from the white盘. In the late session, the US stock market tested a low of 117776 before rebounding to 118823, facing pressure again. As of now, it has dropped to a low of around 116053. From a four-hour perspective, the price shows an orderly downward channel, with each rebound peaking lower, indicating weak bullish momentum. Each rebound has failed to break through key resistance, and bears are clearly in control, with a complete downward structure. In terms of technical indicators, the fast and slow lines are about to form a death cross at a low level, with the indicator signals resonating with price movements, accumulating bearish momentum. The hourly level shows that the Bollinger Bands are in a contracting and closing state, indicating that the market is in a short-term adjustment phase, with volatility temporarily narrowing. It is recommended to continue a bearish outlook, closely monitor the breakthrough of key resistance levels, and wait for confirmation of trend acceleration signals before positioning accordingly.

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Ethereum surged strongly to the resistance line of 3876 yesterday during the day session, but after being impacted by news and the drop in US stocks during the evening session, it experienced a significant pullback, and as of now, it has fallen back to around 3708. On the four-hour level, it has formed three consecutive bearish candles, and the coin price has once again come below the middle track, rebounding after almost touching the lower track. It can be seen that although the coin price has returned to the oscillation range in the morning session, the technical indicators still show a downward trend, which has not changed. The short-term volatility of the market may further narrow, and the bearish trend remains obvious. This evening, there are also non-farm payroll data releases, and market sentiment leans towards caution! This pattern usually indicates an energy accumulation process, and after the adjustment ends, it is likely to welcome a trend breakout.