Summary of the Fed's FOMC statement and Powell's press conference: Interest rates remain unchanged, no decision has been made on the September interest rate.

[Fed FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary: Interest Rate Remains Unchanged, No Decision Made on September Interest Rate Yet] Fed FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary: FOMC Statement:

1. Statement Overview: Maintain the benchmark Intrerest Rate at 4.25%-4.50%, unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocate for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors have cast dissenting votes.
3. Inflation Outlook: The inflation wording remains unchanged, indicating that inflation is still somewhat elevated.
4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty about the outlook remains high. Powell发布会：
5. Interest Rate Outlook: The current policy stance is in a favorable position; no decision has been made regarding the September meeting; it is not possible to make decisions based on the June dot plot in six weeks, and data will need to be relied upon.
6. Inflation Outlook: The year-on-year increase in core PCE for June may be 2.7%, while overall PCE is expected to rise by 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Fed's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be more affected by tariffs.
7. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a stable position, with indicators showing a slowdown in economic growth; it is not believed that the Inflation Reduction Act significantly stimulates the economy.
8. Employment Prospects: The labor market remains balanced, but downside risks are clearly present.
9. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates show little change; it is reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% or 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is still too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
10. Explanation of the Disagreement: It is expected that the opponents of the resolution will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut interest rates, and it is not surprising that there are differences.
11. Market Reaction: After the announcement, there was little fluctuation in the market. During Powell's speech, gold's daily decline expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; US bond yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; US stocks came under pressure and fell, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $116,000.
12. Other matters: Trump stated before the announcement of the resolution that the Fed will not cut interest rates this time, and indicated that it would lower rates in September.
13. Latest Expectations: Market bets on interest rate cuts have cooled. As of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the entire year is 36BP, compared to 44BP before the decision.