Bitcoin Volatility Warning: The rise trend of the VIX index in August suggests significant price fluctuations | CoinDesk JAPAN

• The CBOE VIX index may rise in August, following a historical pattern of Volatility rise.
• The market trend of Bitcoin is closely related to the sentiment of the American financial market, especially technology stocks, and may be influenced by the expected sharp rise in the VIX index.

The seasonal pattern of the CBOE VIX index suggests that turmoil in the American financial markets is likely to intensify, which may soon fulfill the hopes of the Bitcoin (BTC) volatility bulls.

The VIX index is an indicator that measures the 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500. According to Barchart.com, the historical pattern of the VIX index shows that it frequently rises sharply in August, with a tendency to decline in the preceding month of July.

August has the highest average monthly rise rate of 13.68% over the past 15 years, standing out significantly. In 10 of those years, a rise was recorded, with an astonishing surge of 135% observed in 2015.

[VIX Seasonality (2010-2024) (Barchart.com)]

Does history repeat itself?

The VIX index fell for three consecutive months in July, with the decline from the April high expanding. According to TradingView data, it recorded a five-month low of 14.92 on Friday the 26th.

Referring to history, this decline is likely to serve as a foundation for the increased volatility and risk-averse stance in the financial markets in August. The VIX index, also known as the "fear index," tends to rise when stock prices fall and fall when stock prices rise.

In other words, a sharp rise in expected volatility in the financial markets could be characterized by a collapse in the stock market, which may also spill over into the Bitcoin market.

[VIX Index Daily Average Level (1990-2024) (Top-Down Chart, LSEG)]Bitcoin tends to closely follow the sentiment of financial markets, particularly technology stocks. The implied volatility index of Bitcoin shows a strong positive correlation with the VIX index and has shown a steady evolution towards a fear index like the VIX. Since November 2024, the 30-day implied volatility index of Bitcoin has sharply declined, and the positive correlation with the spot price has disappeared.

| Translation and Editing: Rinan Hayashi | Image: sergeitokmakov/Pixabay ｜Original: Bitcoin Volatility Alert: VIX’s Bullish August Seasonality Points to Big Price Swings

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