Mysterious trader wins huge profits on the platform

A mysterious trader known as the "Trump Whale" is expected to make nearly $50 million in profit through a series of bold bets related to the presidential election.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" not only bets that Donald Trump will win the presidential election, but also believes he will win the popular vote—a result that many political observers consider unlikely. Théo also bets that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Théo uses four anonymous accounts to place bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a reporter since an article on October 18 drew attention to his bets.

In multiple emails, Théo stated that his bets are essentially wagers on the accuracy of polling data. He identifies himself as a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. He mentioned that starting this summer, he began using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls.

Théo believes that the polls have exaggerated the support rate of Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he has turned his analysis into action, betting more than $30 million on a Trump victory.

On election night, Théo is in a good mood. He stated that he woke up at midnight in France to check the election results. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates that he has a great chance of winning the popular vote.

On the eve of the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris. He also predicted that Trump would win six out of the seven battleground states.

As of Wednesday afternoon, analysts predict that Trump will win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, despite millions of votes still to be counted in some states. The betting market considers it a near certainty that Trump will win the popular vote.

Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own money to make a big profit, claiming that he "absolutely has no political motives." However, the authenticity of these statements cannot be confirmed.

In his interactions with reporters, Théo repeatedly criticized public opinion polls in the United States. He specifically criticized the polls conducted by mainstream media, arguing that these polls tend to favor the Democratic Party and often produce anomalous results that are advantageous to Harris.

Théo believes that the polls fail to explain the "shy Trump voter effect." He thinks that either Trump supporters are unwilling to tell pollsters that they support the former president, or they do not want to participate in the polls.

To address this issue, Théo suggested using the "neighboring resident adjustment" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He cited some poll results that used this method, which showed a lower level of support for Harris.

Théo stated that he commissioned a large polling organization to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He believes that if American polling organizations adopt this method in future surveys, it may help avoid major mistakes again.