The crypto market may迎来趋势反转, seizing short-term capital opportunities.

1. The macro and crypto market are gradually improving

1. Tariff policy easing

Trump publicly stated that the current tariffs on Chinese imports in the U.S. are too high, and the tax rates are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a shift in Trump's attitude towards tariff policy, leading to a decrease in market volatility.

2. Interest rate easing expectations

The current interest rate futures market expects interest rate cuts to begin in June, with a total of three cuts within the year. This could inject new liquidity into the market.

3. Promotion of encryption-friendly policies

The United States is promoting the establishment of "strategic Bitcoin reserves" and "U.S. digital asset reserves." Several states are also advancing Bitcoin state reserve legislation. At the same time, two stablecoin bills are being pushed forward, which are expected to be implemented in the second half of 2025.

The new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is seen as a friendly regulator for the encryption industry, and is expected to reduce enforcement actions against crypto companies, promoting industry innovation.

4. BTC trend shifts to bullish

Since mid-March, BTC has outperformed the US stock market, demonstrating certain safe-haven attributes. On April 8, BTC showed bottom signals, and the MACD fast and slow lines have now risen above the zero axis, indicating a market trend shift from bearish to bullish.

2. ETH or Altcoins Leading Trend Reversal

1. On-chain data analysis

The number of profitable ETH addresses has rapidly dropped to around 35%, below the levels seen during the 2022 bear market. The MVRV indicator has decreased to 0.8, with the market value below the realized value, indicating a clear oversold condition. The cost basis distribution shows a significant long-term holder accumulation area around $1850, which may form a new support level.

2. Contract Data Analysis

The total open interest of ETH contracts is $21.821 billion, with an OI/MC of around 10%, higher than other major cryptocurrencies. On April 22, the open interest of ETH contracts surged, driving the price to break through $1695, followed by a range-bound open interest while the price continued to rise to $1800, indicating that leveraged funds and spot funds are jointly driving the market.

Most exchanges have ETH contract positions that are several times the spot reserves, providing a huge space for liquidation profits.

3. Technical Analysis

Multiple technical indicators for ETH show bottoming signals, with K-line patterns presenting a Wyckoff spring and bullish engulfing. The price has broken through the 20-day EMA, MACD has formed a golden cross, and both RSI and MFI have entered the oversold zone, indicating a possible reversal.

3. Opportunities for Altcoin Mining

1. NEIROETH

NEIROETH is an Ethereum-based meme coin with a market capitalization of approximately $61 million. The 24-hour contract trading volume is $843 million, which is 24 times that of spot trading. The OI/MC exceeds 13.8 times, indicating an active contract market.

The overall network's long-short ratio is 1.05, with large holders having a significant number of long positions. Recently, the net long positions have been continuously rising, and the short liquidation amount within 24 hours is 8 times that of the longs, indicating a bullish trend.

2. ZEREBRO

ZEREBRO is an AI system token deployed on Solana, with a market value of approximately $76.85 million. The contract holdings increased by over 300% in 24 hours, trading volume surged by 782%, and the price rose by 165%.

The contract CVD continues to rise, and the funding rate is positive. The large holders' position long-short ratio is 1.4, indicating a clear bullish trend. There was a concentrated buying activity in the early hours of April 23.

4. Summary

The current macro environment is improving, and BTC has broken through a key position. ETH is at a critical level of support and resistance conversion, which may lead to a trend reversal. Focus on data anomaly altcoins such as NEIROETH and ZEREBRO to seize opportunities brought by short-term capital flow.