Back in April this year, I determined that ETH had completed its bottoming process and the whipsaw was almost over. Although the overall market is still consolidating at low levels, ETH's performance has actually been strong, rising by more than double from its lowest point. And don't forget, funds for the ETH spot ETF are continuously flowing in, backed by a large number of institutions and companies increasing their positions. Some have even started to compare the development path of ETH to cases like MicroStrategy's holdings in Bitcoin.

When I made that judgment in April, I also cited several examples of people cutting their losses and leaving the market. Some of them made the decision to completely liquidate based on on-chain data. It can't be said that they were irrational, because at that time there were indeed some data that looked quite alarming.
For example, after Ethereum completes the Cancun upgrade in 2024, the Gas fees on the mainnet (L1) will significantly decrease; by 2025, Uniswap chooses to migrate from L1 to L2, which will cause a dramatic decline in the activity on Ethereum L1. Gas revenue fell from a position that was previously second only to TRON, directly dropping out of the top ten. Moreover, more critically, Ethereum's actual annual inflation rate surged from about 0.2% to over 0.7%, increasing more than threefold.
From an on-chain perspective, the current activity and data of Ethereum are still declining, with no clear signs of reversal. However, investing is not something that can be done correctly purely based on data models. Sometimes, it also requires a bit of intuition and experience.
If you decisively liquidate your holdings when on-chain indicators start to deteriorate, and then wait for ETH to drop below $1500, only to suddenly ignore the data and decisively buy the dip, this contradictory operation is something 95% of people cannot achieve. Because in such extreme volatility, it is difficult for human nature to maintain an instinctively calm demeanor.
I believe that most people either actively sold during the emotional low below $2000 or passively exited during the liquidation wave. Not to mention those altcoins that have dropped by 90%, if you were to ask me to tell you where to sell and where to liquidate based on historical price charts, I might not be able to give a clear answer.
So, investing is not as simple as just buying and holding or talking about charts. The real market environment is very complex, and often various contradictory signals intertwine before the actual market conditions arrive.
The current Ethereum has not changed fundamentally compared to the low point in early April, but the price and trend are completely different, and that is the market.