CITIC Securities: Still expects The Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates no more than 2 times this year.

[CITIC Securities: Still Expecting Less Than or Equal to 2 Rate Cuts by the Federal Reserve This Year] CITIC Securities’ research report states that at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting in May 2025, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate unchanged, with the meeting statement emphasizing that “uncertainty has further intensified.” Powell’s remarks revolved around the terms “uncertain” and “wait-and-see,” seemingly offering little incremental information. However, based on our analysis framework of “transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty,” current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations have somewhat reduced rate cut expectations. We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates less than or equal to 2 times this year, and we anticipate that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting will keep the policy interest rate unchanged. In the market, the subdued meeting did not stir up too much turbulence; we expect the market to continue trading around Trump’s tariff policy in the short term, and bearish sentiment towards the dollar in the forex market remains strong. The outlook for U.S. stocks is still unclear, and we expect it to maintain high fluctuation in the short term. ( Jin10 )