Bitcoin Halving, One Year Later – How This Cycle Plays Out

Exactly one year ago, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving – cutting down the whales from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for each block. The event took place on April 19, 2024, and was closely followed by analysts, miners, and the entire cryptocurrency community. Since then, a lot has happened. So how has Bitcoin performed this time – and how does it compare to previous cycles? The Numbers One Year Later Each halving in Bitcoin's history has been followed by significant price growth. In 2012, after the first halving, the price increased from around 12 dollars to over 1,000 dollars within a year. The second halving occurred in July 2016, when Bitcoin was trading at nearly $650. By the summer of the following year, the price had risen to over $2,500. The third halving took place in May 2020 with Bitcoin at $8,600 - a year later, the price was just below $57,000. The fourth halving, which took place in April last year, was different as Bitcoin traded at nearly $64,000 – only a 12% fall from its all-time high. Today, a year later, the price is around $85,000. This is a 32.5% increase, making it the lowest post-halving profit. But it still makes sense that the total market capitalization of Bitcoin has increased by more than 430 billion dollars - the second largest growth in any halving period, only after 2020.

The Halving Model Remains Intact Although this growth is more modest, the core trend has not been broken. Each halving has led to a higher price than the previous one. Bitcoin has never traded lower than four years ago. And one year after each halving, the price is always higher. This is the first time Bitcoin has not achieved triple-digit growth after halving – but given its current scale of operation, that is not surprising. At this scale, adding hundreds of billions in value is still considered significant. If anything, this cycle may mark the point where Bitcoin is no longer a trader's bet but has become a more macro asset – still volatile, but no longer solely driven by hype. The Road to the Next Halving The next halving is scheduled to take place in April 2028. That is when the reward will be cut down again, this time from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. This process will repeat approximately every four years until the final halving in 2140, when the reward will disappear completely. But the inflation rate will fall much sooner. By 2035, more than 99% of the total bitcoin will have been mined. After that, it will take over a century to unlock the final 1% and more than 30 years to mine the last Bitcoin. The current block reward of Bitcoin is still important, especially for miners. But over time, the financial incentive will shift from issuance to transaction fees. That is the ultimate goal that Satoshi designed from the very beginning – and so far, the timeline has not slipped. Final Thoughts The fourth halving didn't bring a 10x increase and didn't triple anyone's money But it still works as historical patterns have shown Bitcoin is now worth more than it was a year ago. It has added hundreds of billions to its market capitalization. And it is heading to the next cycle with its core still intact. With the first year behind us, what happens next will be harder to predict. The second year after halving does not follow a clear pattern. After the halvings in 2012 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced a significant fall in the second year. However, in the cycle after 2016, the increase continued - and the price more than doubled.