Da Mo warns: S&P 500 could fall 5% due to growth risks

On March 10, Michael Wilson, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the U.S. stock market is likely to fall another 5% due to concerns about the impact of tariffs and reduced fiscal spending on corporate earnings. According to the strategist, he expects the S&P 500 to hit a low of about 5,500 points in the first half of this year before recovering to 6,500 points by the end of 2025. Until mid-2024, the strategist was one of those with a generally pessimistic view on the stock market. Wilson wrote in a note that his year-end goal implies a 13% rise in equities from current levels, though "as markets continue to consider these growth risks, the path could be volatile and could get worse before it gets better." The strategist also warned that in the event of a recession, the index could fall by 20%. "We're not there yet, but things can change quickly, so it's useful to understand the headwinds of a bear market to manage risk," Wilson said. ”