U.S. February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released on March 11, 2026 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Main highlights (seasonally adjusted): Monthly change (headline CPI): +0.3% (Slight increase from January’s +0.2%, fully in line with expectations) Annual inflation (headline CPI): 2.4% (Unchanged from January, the lowest level since May 2025) Core CPI (excluding food and energy, monthly): +0.2% (Slowed from January’s +0.3%) Core CPI annual: 2.5% (Unchanged, among the lowest levels since early 2021) Notable movements by component Shelter: +0.2% monthly, +3.0% annually — the largest contributor to the monthly increase. Energy: +0.6% monthly, +0.5% annually — gasoline prices rose +0.8%, reflecting a broader energy rebound following declines in previous months. Food: +0.4% monthly (Home food +0.5%, food away from home +0.3%) +3.1% annually. Used vehicles: Monthly decline continued, with prices down -3.2% year-over-year. Other notable increases Medical care: +3.4% annually Household furnishings and operations: +3.9% Personal care: +4.5% Declines Communication: -0.5% Motor vehicle insurance: -0.3% Some personal care sub-components also declined. CPI index level (1982-84 = 100) February 2026: 326.79 (Up from 325.25 in January) Market reaction Market reaction was generally calm. The data largely matched expectations, and inflation continues to stabilize near the 2% target of the Federal Reserve. Rate-cut expectations for 2026 remained mostly unchanged. However, geopolitical risks — particularly tensions involving Iran in the Middle East and the possibility of an oil price spike — could push March CPI (to be released April 10, 2026) higher. Some analysts suggest that in the event of an energy shock, headline inflation could rise toward ~3.3% during the spring, while core inflation may remain relatively stable. Fed outlook This data will play an important role in upcoming Fed policy decisions. Inflation trends currently support the “soft landing” scenario, but energy-driven upside risks cannot be ignored. What do you think the Fed will do with these numbers? Will rate cuts continue, or will the Fed pause?
2026年2月米国消費者物価指数(CPI)データは、2026年3月11日に米労働統計局により発表されました。
主な要点(季節調整済み)：
月次変化(ヘッドラインCPI)：+0.3%
( 1月の+0.2%からわずかに上昇し、予想と完全に一致)
年間インフレ率(ヘッドラインCPI)：2.4%
( 1月から変わらず、2025年5月以来の最低水準)
コアCPI(食品とエネルギーを除く、月次)：+0.2%
( 1月の+0.3%から鈍化)
コアCPI年間：2.5%
( 変わらず、2021年初頭以来の最低水準の一つ)
構成要素別の注目の動き
住宅：
月次+0.2%、年間+3.0% — 月次上昇の最大の寄与要因。
エネルギー：
月次+0.6%、年間+0.5% — ガソリン価格は+0.8%上昇し、前月までの下落に続く広範なエネルギー反発を反映。
食品：
月次+0.4%
( 食品自炊+0.5%、外食+0.3%)
年間+3.1%。
中古車：
月次の下落が継続し、前年比で価格は-3.2%。
その他の注目の上昇
医療：年間+3.4%
家具と住宅運営：+3.9%
個人衛生：+4.5%
下落
通信：-0.5%
自動車保険：-0.3%
個人衛生の一部の細目も下落。
CPI指数レベル
( 1982～84年＝100)
2026年2月：326.79
( 1月の325.25から上昇)
市場反応
市場反応は概ね落ち着いていました。データは予想と大きく合致し、インフレは連邦準備制度の2%目標近辺で安定し続けています。
2026年の利下げ予想は大部分は変わりませんでした。しかし、地政学的リスク — 特にイランを含む中東の緊張と石油価格上昇の可能性 — が3月のCPI(2026年4月10日発表予定)を押し上げる可能性があります。
一部のアナリストは、エネルギーショックが発生した場合、春にはヘッドラインインフレが～3.3%まで上昇する可能性があり、コアインフレは比較的安定している可能性があることを示唆しています。
FRB見通し
このデータは、今後のFED政策決定において重要な役割を果たします。
インフレトレンドは現在「ソフトランディング」シナリオを支持していますが、エネルギー主導の上振れリスクは無視できません。
これらの数字でFRBは何をすると思いますか？
利下げが継続されるでしょうか、それともFRBは一時停止するでしょうか？
#MarchCPIDataReleased
Main highlights (seasonally adjusted):
Monthly change (headline CPI): +0.3%
(Slight increase from January’s +0.2%, fully in line with expectations)
Annual inflation (headline CPI): 2.4%
(Unchanged from January, the lowest level since May 2025)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy, monthly): +0.2%
(Slowed from January’s +0.3%)
Core CPI annual: 2.5%
(Unchanged, among the lowest levels since early 2021)
Notable movements by component
Shelter:
+0.2% monthly, +3.0% annually — the largest contributor to the monthly increase.
Energy:
+0.6% monthly, +0.5% annually — gasoline prices rose +0.8%, reflecting a broader energy rebound following declines in previous months.
Food:
+0.4% monthly
(Home food +0.5%, food away from home +0.3%)
+3.1% annually.
Used vehicles:
Monthly decline continued, with prices down -3.2% year-over-year.
Other notable increases
Medical care: +3.4% annually
Household furnishings and operations: +3.9%
Personal care: +4.5%
Declines
Communication: -0.5%
Motor vehicle insurance: -0.3%
Some personal care sub-components also declined.
CPI index level
(1982-84 = 100)
February 2026: 326.79
(Up from 325.25 in January)
Market reaction
Market reaction was generally calm. The data largely matched expectations, and inflation continues to stabilize near the 2% target of the Federal Reserve.
Rate-cut expectations for 2026 remained mostly unchanged. However, geopolitical risks — particularly tensions involving Iran in the Middle East and the possibility of an oil price spike — could push March CPI (to be released April 10, 2026) higher.
Some analysts suggest that in the event of an energy shock, headline inflation could rise toward ~3.3% during the spring, while core inflation may remain relatively stable.
Fed outlook
This data will play an important role in upcoming Fed policy decisions.
Inflation trends currently support the “soft landing” scenario, but energy-driven upside risks cannot be ignored.
What do you think the Fed will do with these numbers?
Will rate cuts continue, or will the Fed pause?
#MarchCPIDataReleased