#密码资产动态追踪 This Friday, the non-farm payroll data showdown is coming! The December employment report may reshape global asset trends
The US December employment report will be released this Friday, and the impact of this data on global financial markets cannot be underestimated. The latest institutional forecasts show: non-farm payroll employment is expected at 55,000 persons, a significant decline from the previous month's 64,000; the unemployment rate is expected to decline further from 4.6% to 4.5%; average hourly earnings growth is projected to rise slightly, rebounding from 3.5% to 3.6%.
At first glance, this data set is filled with contradictory signals. A decline in employment typically means the labor market is cooling down, but the unemployment rate is simultaneously declining—which is the true signal? Here's the key: the non-farm payroll employment figure, which once commanded considerable attention, has become a "tasteless" data point. The market has long since learned to price this indicator precisely. What will truly determine this week's trajectory is actually just one indicator: the unemployment rate!
The unemployment rate is more important because it more comprehensively reflects the true temperature of the employment market. The Federal Reserve, traders, and institutions are all using this indicator to assess whether the economy still has sufficient resilience. If the unemployment rate continues to decline, it signals that the labor market remains solid, and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations will cool, with the US dollar likely continuing to strengthen; conversely, if the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, the dollar should weaken accordingly, and dovish expectations will reignite.
From a trading logic perspective, the strength or weakness of the employment market directly affects the direction of the US dollar index, which in turn impacts the entire global asset price system—from stocks to digital currencies, chain reactions are everywhere. Risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are particularly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Of course, the non-farm payroll figure can only make a comeback as the main focus if it shows extreme anomalies (such as negative growth). Otherwise, this Friday, all eyes should be fixed on every movement of the unemployment rate. To position yourself precisely in this market move, this indicator is absolutely essential!
#密码资产动态追踪 This Friday, the non-farm payroll data showdown is coming! The December employment report may reshape global asset trends
The US December employment report will be released this Friday, and the impact of this data on global financial markets cannot be underestimated. The latest institutional forecasts show: non-farm payroll employment is expected at 55,000 persons, a significant decline from the previous month's 64,000; the unemployment rate is expected to decline further from 4.6% to 4.5%; average hourly earnings growth is projected to rise slightly, rebounding from 3.5% to 3.6%.
At first glance, this data set is filled with contradictory signals. A decline in employment typically means the labor market is cooling down, but the unemployment rate is simultaneously declining—which is the true signal? Here's the key: the non-farm payroll employment figure, which once commanded considerable attention, has become a "tasteless" data point. The market has long since learned to price this indicator precisely. What will truly determine this week's trajectory is actually just one indicator: the unemployment rate!
The unemployment rate is more important because it more comprehensively reflects the true temperature of the employment market. The Federal Reserve, traders, and institutions are all using this indicator to assess whether the economy still has sufficient resilience. If the unemployment rate continues to decline, it signals that the labor market remains solid, and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations will cool, with the US dollar likely continuing to strengthen; conversely, if the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, the dollar should weaken accordingly, and dovish expectations will reignite.
From a trading logic perspective, the strength or weakness of the employment market directly affects the direction of the US dollar index, which in turn impacts the entire global asset price system—from stocks to digital currencies, chain reactions are everywhere. Risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are particularly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Of course, the non-farm payroll figure can only make a comeback as the main focus if it shows extreme anomalies (such as negative growth). Otherwise, this Friday, all eyes should be fixed on every movement of the unemployment rate. To position yourself precisely in this market move, this indicator is absolutely essential!