23 April Morning Market Outlook

1. Geopolitical risk aversion cools but does not retreat
Signals from US-Iran negotiations are released, the expectation of full-scale conflict decreases, becoming one of the main reasons for yesterday's sharp drop in gold prices; but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, oil prices stay high, energy inflation and geopolitical residual warmth continue to support gold prices, short-term bearish, but medium-term still supported by bullish factors.
2. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations significantly diminish
US March retail sales far exceeded expectations, market rate cut expectations sharply decline, the timing of the first rate cut is delayed, the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, gold holding costs rise, coupled with ETF continuous reduction, medium-term still under pressure from a strong dollar and high yields.
3. Central bank gold purchases provide long-term support
Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for consecutive years, with China, Turkey, and others continuously increasing holdings, forming a long-term ballast for gold prices, limiting significant downward space.
Technical analysis
Daily chart shows high-level oscillation and decline, after oversold entering recovery and consolidation, moving averages converge, bulls and bears are deadlocked with no clear trend.
4-hour rebound pace slows, Bollinger bands tighten and oscillate, last night probing down to 4725 released bearish momentum, support at 4720 repeatedly held, short-term decline slows, rebound weak, in a low-level recovery stage, focus on breakout direction.
Resistance: 4770-4800-4835
Support: 4720-4700-4665
Trading ideas (range oscillation)
Buy near 4710-4720 stop loss 4690
Target 4760-4780
Sell near 4770 stop loss 4785 target 4700
Investing involves risks, trade cautiously $XAUUSD