Organisation : Les États-Unis / Japon entrent dans une fourchette de fluctuation ou seul la Banque centrale japonaise peut briser le cycle

Gold Financial reports that on April 22, the US dollar against the yen remains trapped within the core range of 158.00-160.00, with threats of Japanese intervention limiting upward movement; while the uncertain Middle East situation, high energy prices, and demand for US dollar safe-haven assets restrict its downward potential. Only a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could significantly boost the yen, possibly pushing it near 155 or even stronger. If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly takes action at the policy meeting on April 27-28, it will largely suppress the USD/JPY exchange rate, and may even cause it to decline ahead of the upcoming Japanese “Golden Week” holiday. However, this possibility currently seems unlikely. According to Totan Research/ICAP data, the probability of a rate hike next week has fallen to 9%. The chance of a rate hike in June has risen to 62%. Although the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are concerned that a weak yen could trigger inflationary effects, the market believes that, amid high concerns over economic growth setbacks, Governor Ueda and most members of the Policy Board remain cautious about the impact of the Middle East situation on the economy. (Gold Ten)