#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Non-farm data remarkably impressive ! Trump, however, keeps jumping back and forth in the US-Iran "peace talks" ; what will be the future of Bitcoin and Ethereum ? Market analysis and trading suggestions !

　　At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March non-farm employment report, which showed a significant increase in employment, indicating a notable improvement in the labor market, due to the end of strikes in the healthcare industry and rising temperatures.　　
However, the overall employment environment remains nearly stagnant, and considering that there are no clear signs of ending the war with Iran, the downside risks to the labor market are continuously increasing.
For the Federal Reserve, considering that inflationary pressures may gradually emerge, waiting and watching may continue to be the main policy stance in the near term.　　
The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k in March, far exceeding the market expectation of 60k, reaching the highest level since December 2024, significantly improving from the "negative growth" of the previous month, with the previous figure revised from -92k to -133k.　　
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, with market expectations remaining steady at 4.4%. The average hourly wages in March grew at an annual rate of 3.5% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both below the expected 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively; the previous values were 3.8% and 0.4%.　　
After the non-farm data was released, the dollar index surged sharply, reaching a high of 100.1. Major non-U.S. currencies declined across the board, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD falling nearly 30 points in the short term. Market pricing shows that bets on the Fed cutting rates in 2026 are decreasing.　　
In the cryptocurrency sector, following the non-farm data release, there was no significant volatility. This week, affected by Trump's rhetoric, the US-Iran war has been fluctuating repeatedly. Bitcoin and Ethereum also oscillated within a range.　
Generally speaking, focusing on one direction might be better, because trying to profit from both long and short positions simultaneously is not impossible, but depends on personal preference.　　
In the short term, the market shows some correlation with US stocks. Technically:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still operating within a downtrend channel, which is undeniable. In the larger trend, combined with smaller trends, after bottoming out on February 6 at the start of the year, they have been correcting through oscillations. The current correction is not enough to reverse the major trend. After the last big drop, the price has been in a broad oscillation for about 3 months; currently, the oscillation has only lasted 2 months.　　
Once we understand that we are still in a correction cycle, our short- and medium-term trading should be planned according to our own capital, rather than imagining a one-sided trend is coming!　
After understanding the major trend, we can then discuss the short-term direction and trend changes in detail!　　
In the short term, using these two months of oscillation range for analysis is sufficient; there is no need to look at larger ranges or trends, as those are only suitable for institutions. For example: BlackRock, Grayscale, etc. These institutions. In the oscillation range, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both operating within the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.618-0.5, which is expected to be broken only during the weekend, likely on Sunday night or Monday morning. During the weekend, prices will continue to fluctuate for indicator adjustments. Focus on Bitcoin, as Ethereum will eventually follow Bitcoin's trend!　　
Currently, Bitcoin is quoted at $67,000, within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone. Short-term support levels are at: $66,200-$66,000;　
Short-term resistance is at: $68,000. Over the past two months, this range has given many the illusion of a potential breakdown at any moment, but repeated non-breakouts can cause unnecessary short-term losses for many traders chasing shorts. Trading with small stop-losses to go long during bottoming phases is the lowest-cost strategy.　　
Ethereum may show some differences, partly due to the recent rise in the Eth/Btc exchange rate. Ethereum tends to make "insertion" moves, and its current candlestick pattern is less strong than Bitcoin's. The overall trading approach remains synchronized. Ethereum is also operating within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone, which is a very narrow range. Short-term support is at: 2015-1900; resistance at: 2080-2100.