Analyse : le prix de transaction du Bitcoin reste environ 21 % au-dessus de son prix réalisé, et aucun signal de fond n'a encore été détecté.

Mars Finance news, according to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis weighted by each on-chain token’s last transaction time) is narrowing, moving closer to the bottom levels of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that a typical capitulation-style sell-off has not yet appeared. At present, Bitcoin’s realized price is about $54,286, the spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The signal at the bottom of the 2022 bear market was the spot price dropping below the realized price; at that time, the spot price was roughly 15% below the realized price, coinciding with the cycle low point. The current 21% premium means the average holder is still in profit; for it to reach the realized price, Bitcoin would need to fall another 20% to $54,000. What’s worth noting is the speed at which the premium is compressing: from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months—this is one of the fastest moves closer to the realized price line, aside from a market crash. Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not completed its reset yet: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative territory, suggesting weakening institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has remained in the $65,000–$70,000 range for five weeks and March ETF inflows of more than $1 billion show that there are buyers, the market has not yet gone through the painful process that typically marks a historic bottom.