Prévision du prix de Cardano : l’analyse hebdomadaire révèle un risque plus profond

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Cardano Price Prediction: Weekly Breakdown Exposes Deeper Risk Original Link: https://coinedition.com/cardano-price-prediction-weekly-breakdown-exposes-deeper-risk/

Key Highlights

• Cardano price today trades near $0.40 after losing the key $0.48 weekly support, signaling a major structural shift.
• Spot flows stay bearish with $19.8M in outflows, extending weeks of distribution as liquidity continues to leave exchanges.
• ADA now sits above the $0.32–$0.36 demand zone while EMAs flip into resistance, keeping sellers in control across all timeframes.

Cardano price today trades near $0.40 after a sharp weekly breakdown that pushed ADA through the $0.48 support shelf. The move confirms a structural shift driven by persistent spot outflows and a steady loss of trend support across higher timeframes.

Spot Outflows Deepen As Sellers Gain Control

Data shows another $19.8 million in net outflows on November 21, extending a multi-session streak of distribution. ADA has now logged consistent red flows for weeks, signaling that liquidity continues to leave exchanges rather than accumulate.

This pattern aligns with the broader downtrend. Every consolidation phase since early September has been met with heavier outflows, showing that sellers remain in control of short-term sentiment. Until flows stabilize, recovery attempts risk fading into supply.

Weekly Breakdown Resets Structure Toward Lower Demand Zones

The weekly chart confirms a decisive loss of structure. ADA closed under the $0.48 support, a level that held for nearly a year and served as the midpoint of multiple recovery attempts.

Price now sits just above the high-volume demand zone between $0.32 and $0.36. This band represents the cluster where bullish momentum returned twice in 2023 and early 2024. If ADA retraces into that region again, liquidity becomes dense and reactions tend to form, but only after deeper washes.

The descending trendline overhead has capped every rally this year, creating a clean series of lower highs. The pattern shows clear distribution. Weekly RSI at 33 reflects persistent weakness and has not yet reached levels associated with major reversals. Money Flow Index near 20 indicates sellers remain dominant.

The longer this compression holds, the more likely price drifts toward the lower support band where buyers historically rebuild structure.

EMAs Flip Into Resistance Across All Timeframes

The short-term chart strengthens the bearish case. ADA trades below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs on the 2-hour timeframe, with each band stacked downward. This creates a clean resistance ceiling that has rejected price repeatedly since early November.

The Supertrend indicator remains red and tracks near $0.44, confirming that intraday direction favors sellers. Every rally toward the Supertrend line has faded, indicating buyers lack momentum.

Immediate resistance now stands at the EMA cluster between $0.44 and $0.48. These levels align with the failed weekly support and add confluence to the broader shift in structure.

A close above the 50 EMA at $0.45 would be the first sign of a momentum reset. Until that happens, intraday rallies remain corrective rather than constructive.

Outlook: Will Cardano Go Up?

The bullish case depends on ADA holding above the $0.36 support band and reclaiming $0.45 with rising volume. A close above the 50 EMA would hint that buyers are willing to challenge the EMA stack and rebuild structure. If that move holds, $0.52 becomes the next upside checkpoint.

The bearish case becomes dominant if ADA loses $0.36. A daily close below this zone exposes the deeper liquidity pocket near $0.32, a level that marks the lower edge of the long-term demand area.

If ADA reclaims $0.45, momentum begins to improve. Losing $0.36 confirms a continuation toward $0.32 and keeps sellers in full control.