CICC : Le risque à la hausse des taux d’intérêt après l’élection de Trump est plus important que le risque à la baisse

BlockBeats news, on November 8th, CICC research report pointed out that the US inflation and economic data in mid-2025 may gradually warm up, and the pace of interest rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump’s election, the upward risk of interest rates is greater than the downward risk, and a 100bps interest rate cut may be an appropriate magnitude. Market expectations for the future interest rate path have swung from one extreme to another in recent economic data, especially after the election. In terms of pace, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound in mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt in interest rate cuts. CICC estimates that inflation in the fourth quarter of this year will be boosted by base effect, but under the push of declining rents, inflation and core inflation will not face much pressure in the first quarter of 2025. In terms of magnitude, a rate cut to around 3.5% is a reasonable level.