Why does BTC show a "kingly rebound" after a black swan event?

Written by: @lanhubiji

There’s an interesting piece of research that may upend some people’s views on BTC’s asset characteristics:

Although everyone has been saying that BTC is digital gold, so far (not sure about going forward), BTC has shown market performance that’s completely different from gold.

One of them is BTC’s market performance in the 60-day window after a black swan—actually even higher than gold + the S&P 500.

So far, in every major shock, BTC’s gains have outperformed gold + &SP 500.

This may imply that BTC’s resilience and performance are still being underestimated.

The data comes from a Mercado Bitcoin research report (led by Rony Szuster) + River Financial’s 60-day window data.

Within this time window, the performance is:

BTC average return: approximately +18% to +37% (in some samples, the River data is ~18%, but it still significantly leads)

S&P 500 average: approximately +3% to +3.5%

Gold average: approximately +4% to +6.2%

Specific data:

January 2020, the escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict: Bitcoin’s 60-day return is about +20%, the S&P 500 falls 7%, and gold rises 6%. (River Financial data);

March 2020, the outbreak of the pandemic: Bitcoin rises 21%, while both gold and the S&P 500 clearly lag—gold +3%, S&P +2%;

February 2022, the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: Bitcoin rises 15%, the S&P 500 rises by about 3%, and gold is up 9% in part of the window but overall underperforms BTC. (River data l)

March 2023, the U.S. regional banking crisis: Bitcoin rises 32%, the S&P 500 rises by about 4%, and gold rises 11%. (River data)

After the U.S. announces tariffs in April 2025: over the following 60 days, Bitcoin rises 24%, gold rises 8%, and the S&P 500 rises 4%. (Mercado Bitcoin research)

The recent 2026 window related to the U.S.–Iran conflict: Bitcoin has already shown relative strength since the escalation, and some reports show a rise of about 2.2% in the short term, while gold and the S&P 500 see declines or lag during this period (the data is not yet complete)

River Financial’s data analysis shows that in multiple similar events, Bitcoin’s average 60-day return is significantly higher than the S&P 500’s by about 3% and gold’s by about 4%. Across the overall sample, Bitcoin’s 100% of returns are positive, indicating extremely high consistency.

Why does BTC show a “kingly rebound” after a black swan?

Rony Szuster’s view is:

In the early stages of a crisis, investors often quickly sell assets to secure cash-flow liquidity, which drags down various assets—including gold—BTC is no exception, and short-term sharp drawdowns often occur.

However, over the next 60 days, as expectations for policy easing or risk appetite recover, BTC is most sensitive to liquidity—its fixed supply and digital scarcity amplify its resilience.

You can’t just draw conclusions from the first few minutes of a crisis.

Bitcoin isn’t a traditional “slow-burning safe-haven asset.” Instead, it’s a super rebound asset that captures the biggest opportunity in the chain of “panic → easing → rebound.”

It combines the attributes of digital gold with a high-beta growth profile, which is why it has led across multiple events.

The conclusion of this research is: Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset overall over the past decade, even though it has high volatility.

(Lastly, one thing needs to be clarified: the study’s data sample mainly consists of black swan events after 2020. While there is consistency, the number of sample cases is still limited. The past does not represent the future.)