Are We Approaching a "Comprehensive Crisis"?

Most of the market is currently focused only on the “energy crisis.” However, if we look at the bigger picture, the global economic outlook is beginning to show multiple serious risk points at the same time. When these pieces come together, the danger is not only a localized downturn, but could be a crisis phase with systemic characteristics.
Below are 5 major pressures taking shape:

1. Lương Thực Crisis
   For the first time since June 2022, hedge funds have returned to net buying wheat. This indicates expectations that agricultural commodity prices could rise sharply in the period ahead.
   In addition, tensions along strategic shipping routes such as important global straits have disrupted the fertilizer supply chain. When fertilizer supply is tightened, agricultural production costs rise, pulling food prices higher.
   Higher food prices not only put pressure on inflation, but also directly affect social stability in many developing countries.
2. Bond Market Crisis
   The yield on Japanese government bonds has been setting new highs one after another. Historically, major swings in the bond market have been the catalyst for large crashes in financial markets.
   Bonds are widely seen as a stabilizing foundation of the financial system. When yields jump sharply, borrowing costs increase accordingly, putting pressure on businesses, governments, and the entire banking system.
   If this trend continues, the risk spreading to the stock market and other risky assets is hard to avoid.
3. Private Credit Market Crisis
   JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has recently warned about risks in the private credit market.
   Some large financial institutions such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Morgan Stanley have previously had to restrict or temporarily pause withdrawals of capital from private credit funds.
   Notably, the market size is around $2 trillion. Many tech and AI companies depend on private credit funding. If this stream of capital is tightened, a wave of defaults or investment cutbacks could occur, leading to widespread spillover effects.
4. Risk of a Subprime Crisis Repeating
   The non-performing loan ratio on subprime loans is rising to its highest level in 11 years. Compared with the 2007 period, many experts believe we are in the “middle phase of 2007”—the time just before the global financial crisis erupted.
   History shows that when non-performing loans rise in a high-interest-rate environment, the financial system will face very significant pressure.
5. Risk of Stagflation
   Global inflation expectations are starting to rise again. Meanwhile, economic growth shows signs of slowing down. Oil prices are set at record highs for the Asian market, increasing cost pressure.
   The combination of high inflation and low growth—also known as stagflation—is often the hardest scenario for central banks to handle. Monetary policy is now almost in a “no-win” situation.
   What Could Happen Next?
   If these crises escalate at the same time, global financial markets could see a broad-based selloff. The likelihood that governments step in immediately may be limited, especially when inflation has not yet been fully brought under control.
   However, history shows that after the damage becomes large enough, central banks often return to strong monetary easing policies (QE). Once cash flow is pumped back into the system, a new growth cycle—possibly even a “supercycle” of assets—could form.
   The question is not whether a crisis will happen, but how widespread it will be and when policy turns. In a period with so many uncertainties, risk management and maintaining investment discipline may be more important than chasing short-term profits.