The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil issue, but now also a food security issue.

Beyond oil, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is currently affecting another critical artery of the global economy: fertilizers. Analysts warn that this disruption could escalate into a multinational food crisis, going far beyond the scope of the energy market. The Quiet Domino Effect of the Iran War About one third of the fertilizers shipped by sea worldwide pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries affected by instability in the Persian Gulf export nearly half of global urea and 30% of global ammonia—two essential nutrients for crop growth.

Since the conflict began on February 28, shipping activity through the strait has fallen by more than 95%, according to UNCTAD. The chain reaction is clear and severe: no fertilizer → poor harvests → skyrocketing food prices → millions of people unable to afford essential goods This is not a far-fetched risk. It is happening—and is happening now. Granular urea prices in Egypt, an important global benchmark for nitrogen fertilizer, have surged to about US$700 per ton from US$400 to US$490 per ton before the war. The The Hormuz Letter reports: “Urea fertilizer prices have increased by 50% since the Strait of Hormuz closed 5 weeks ago. 30% of global fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region produces nearly half of global urea and 30% of global ammonia. European and African agricultural markets have started paying for this product.” The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts that global fertilizer prices will rise by an average of 15% to 20% in the first half of 2026 if this disruption continues. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero calls this blockade order one of the most serious shocks to global commodity flows in recent years. UBS economist Arend Kapteyn forecasts that fertilizer prices will increase 48% year over year, pushing global food prices up by 12%. Why the Timing Worsens This Problem Again The timing of this disruption is especially important. In countries such as India, fertilizer shortages directly affect planting decisions for the Kharif growing season. If this window is missed, the consequences will extend through the end of the year. The The Guardian reports: “Fertilizer procurement for the Kharif crop season usually begins in May, before planting crops such as rice and cotton in June and July, leaving only a short period before the fertilizer shortage starts to affect harvest yields.” This crisis is structural, not merely a logistics problem. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can cause food-supply consequences that last a very long time after any ceasefire order or solution is issued.

Shanaka Anslem Perera argues that the 2026 crisis reflects Sri Lanka’s collapse in 2022, but instead of a policy move, it stems from a supply disruption originating from the Strait of Hormuz. “The Kharif planting season runs from April to June. Seeds not sown in April will not produce rice in October. Fertilizer not applied during planting will not improve yields at harvest,” he said. “Sri Lanka’s default in 2022 lasted eleven months, from a fertilizer ban to the collapse of sovereignty. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has only been in place for five weeks. The Kharif season ends in June. The trajectory is the same. Faster pace. And the number of countries on this path is not one. It is twelve.” Thus, what begins as a geopolitical disruption in the oil market is also turning into a multi-layered global crisis. Fertilizer is the foundation of modern food production. Any prolonged shock to fertilizer supply can create slow but increasingly severe consequences. Unlike oil, which can be diverted or replaced over time, fertilizer shortages are far harder to adapt to. Agricultural cycles are fixed, and shortages of inputs will lead to direct losses in output. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to narrow, the world may face not only an energy crisis but also the early stage of a synchronized global food crisis.