Circle will launch cirBTC; Coinbase receives conditional approval for a trust license

Top Headlines

▌Circle to launch cirBTC, 1:1 backed by Bitcoin and supports on-chain verification

On April 3, the stablecoin issuer Circle posted on the X platform announcing that it will soon launch a wrapped Bitcoin token, cirBTC. cirBTC is supported by BTC 1:1 and can be verified on-chain. Its design is intended to seamlessly collaborate with Circle’s infrastructure and the broader DeFi ecosystem, thereby creating a neutral foundation for new on-chain applications.

▌Coinbase says it has received conditional approval for a U.S. trust license

On April 2, according to market news: Coinbase said it has received conditional approval for a U.S. trust license, meaning its next step toward conducting digital asset businesses such as custodial services under the federal regulatory framework. If the approval ultimately takes effect, the relevant license will help strengthen its compliance service capabilities for institutional clients.

Market

As of the time of this publication, according to data from CoinGecko:

The BTC price is $66,895.85, with a 24-hour change of -1.8%;

The ETH price is $2,055.06, with a 24-hour change of -4.0%;

The BNB price is $583.43, with a 24-hour change of -4.5%;

The SOL price is $78.90, with a 24-hour change of -3.0%;

The DOGE price is $0.09032, with a 24-hour change of -2.3%;

The XRP price is $1.32, with a 24-hour change of -2.3%;

The TRX price is $0.3152, with a 24-hour change of -0.2%;

The WLFI price is $0.09999, with a 24-hour change of +0.3%;

The HYPE price is $35.26, with a 24-hour change of -2.0%.

Policy

▌U.S. CFTC and DOJ sue the governor and attorney general of Illinois, alleging they lack authority to regulate prediction markets

On April 3, according to market news: the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against the governor and attorney general of Illinois, alleging that they are trying to regulate prediction markets beyond their legal authority. The two agencies said that the relevant regulatory measures in Illinois are ineffective because the state government does not have jurisdiction over federally regulated prediction markets. The lawsuit emphasizes protecting innovative financial instruments from overreach by local governments.

▌European Central Bank Executive Board member: The digital euro has “good momentum,” expected to be launched in July 2029

On April 2, a member of the ECB Executive Board, Piero Cipollone, said the digital euro has “good momentum” and that it may be launched in July 2029. The Italian official said on Wednesday on Latvian television: “At this stage, there is already enough consensus on this project.” “We are on the right track, and I also see good momentum in terms of legislation. I see increasing interest from banks in participating in the pilot.

▌Coinbase CLO: A compromise on the stablecoin incentive mechanism in the ‘CLARITY Act’ may be reached by this coming Friday

On April 2, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said that a compromise on the stablecoin incentive mechanism in the “CLARITY Act” may be reached by this coming Friday. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a clause review hearing in the coming weeks.

▌Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Explore innovative businesses such as ‘compute power banks’ and ‘compute power marketplaces’

On April 2, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document on carrying out a special campaign to empower small and medium-sized enterprises with inclusive compute power. It mentioned an innovative model for inclusive compute power services. Improve the compute power platform’s dedicated sections for small and medium-sized enterprises—such as the docking-focused sections for China’s small and medium-sized enterprise service networks’ compute power resources and dedicated sections for national compute internet service nodes (collectively referred to as the small and medium-sized enterprise platform sections)—to promote precise matching between SMEs’ demand and the supply of compute power resources, and to roll out flexible payment models such as “card-time,” “chip-time,” and Token-based charging. Explore innovative businesses such as “compute power banks” and “compute power marketplaces,” support SMEs in depositing idle compute power resources, and enable flexible usage through cross-regional and cross-cycle scheduling. Implement an AI support plan for SME entrepreneurship, and encourage local relevant departments to subsidize SMEs oriented toward the industrial direction with “compute vouchers,” “storage vouchers,” and “transport vouchers” via the SME platform sections, simplifying the process of obtaining and using them.

▌Iran: If the enemy launches a ground offensive, the entire force will be wiped out

On April 2, Iran’s commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Khatami, warned on April 2 that if the enemy attempts a ground offensive, no enemy soldiers would survive. He said the military must maintain the utmost vigilance and suspicion at all times, closely monitor the enemy’s movements and actions, and implement an operational plan to respond to the enemy’s offensive at an appropriate moment. (CCTV International News)

Blockchain Applications

▌SpaceX is poised to push for a $2 trillion valuation, surpassing Meta and Tesla

On April 3, people familiar with the matter said that SpaceX has raised its target valuation for its initial public offering to more than $2 trillion. These sources said the company and its advisers are sharing this valuation target with potential investors as preparation for meetings over the next few weeks. Reports from overseas media previously suggested that these so-called “test-the-waters” briefing decks may include more information supporting the valuation. In February, it was reported that after SpaceX acquired Musk’s xAI, the company’s valuation after consolidation was $1.25 trillion. At a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX would exceed every company in the S&P 500 except for Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent), Microsoft, and Amazon, and would also surpass two of the “Magnificent Seven” besides—Meta and Tesla, which is under Musk himself.

▌YZi Labs announces a strategic follow-on investment in Predict.fun

On April 2, YZi Labs announced a strategic follow-on investment in Predict.fun after the second season of EASY Residency. Other participating parties also include Susquehanna Crypto, a globally leading digital asset trading firm. Since Predict.fun graduated from the EASY Residency incubation project by YZi Labs, it has grown rapidly, with a cumulative matched order count exceeding 4 million and trading volume surpassing $1.8 billion.

▌Drift adjusted the multisig setup one week before the stolen attack, and did not set a timelock

On April 2, Cosine published an analysis of the Drift stolen incident, noting that one week before the attack, Drift adjusted its multisig setup to “2/5” (1 old signer + 4 new signers) and did not set a timelock. The attacker then obtained administrator privileges, forged CVT tokens, manipulated the oracle, shut down security mechanisms, and transferred high-value assets from the funds pool.

Cryptocurrencies

▌Tether launches its $50 billion-valuation fundraising final push

According to The Information: Tether is launching its final push for fundraising at a $50 billion valuation, urging investors to commit to an agreement within the next two weeks.

▌CME: March average daily trading of crypto futures contracts up 19%, with a notional value of $7.98 billion

The derivatives market’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that in March, the average daily trading volume for its crypto futures contracts reached 210,000 contracts, with a notional value of $7.98 billion and up 19%. Among this, the average daily trading volume for micro Bitcoin futures contracts increased 6%, reaching 77,000 contracts. The average daily trading volume for Ethereum futures contracts rose 53%, reaching 19,000 contracts. In addition, the platform’s overall average daily trading volume in March across contracts reached 41.10 million contracts, setting a monthly high and up 33% month-over-month; in the first quarter, the average daily trading volume reached 36.20 million contracts, setting a quarterly high and up 22%.

▌Metaplanet adds 5,075 BTC in the first quarter total, total holdings reach 40,177 BTC

On April 2, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said that in the first quarter of 2026, the company purchased 5,075 BTC at an average price of about $79,898 per coin, for total outlay of approximately $405.48 million. From the start of the year, its Bitcoin return is 2.8%. As of March 31, the company had accumulated holdings of 40,177 BTC, with a total cost of about $4.18 billion and an average cost of $104,106.

▌Drift hacker swaps 2.45 million USDC for 1,195 ETH

On April 2, according to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa monitoring, the Drift hacker swapped 2.45 million USDC for 1,195 ETH. Currently, four addresses have cumulatively held 130,293 ETH, worth about $266 million.

▌ZeroStack reaches a final agreement for a $107 million financing transaction secured by 0G tokens

ZeroStack Corp., a Nasdaq-listed company, announced that it has reached a final agreement for a $107 million financing transaction secured by 0G tokens. After the transaction is completed, ZeroStack will hold approximately 21% of the total supply of 0G tokens. Under the terms of the financing, ZeroStack will establish a company in Texas, Texas Blocker, to facilitate the transaction. The investors plan to contribute 142,232,948 native 0G tokens (worth about $107 million). After the share exchange is completed, Texas Blocker will become ZeroStack’s wholly owned subsidiary. The share exchange is expected to be completed around July 5, 2026, but it will need to satisfy customary closing conditions and obtain shareholder approval.

Key Economic Developments

▌UBS: Gold still has a chance to set new highs within the year; full-year average $5,000

On April 2, UBS strategist Joni Tveis expected that although the gold price has been volatile recently, the gold price this year will hit a new high and that the recent pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. UBS expects the gold average price in 2026 to be $5,000 per ounce; for 2027 and 2028, it is $4,800 and $4,250, respectively. (Jin10)

▌U.S. weekly initial jobless claims last week were 202,000

On April 2, the number of Americans who filed for initial unemployment benefits for the first time last week was 202,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000, and the prior value was 210,000.

▌Iran says it is drafting a passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman

On April 2, according to Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said that Iran is drafting a passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. (Jin10)

▌Federal Reserve’s Logan: Can shrink the balance sheet by changing regulatory rules

On April 2, Dallas Fed President Logan outlined the path and options for the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of its balance sheet, while also noting that the current system is operating well and would benefit overall financial stability. Logan said the current system for managing financial liquidity is designed to provide “ample” reserve levels, and that the system is “efficient and effective.” However, under the current system, there are still multiple ways to help reduce the amount the Federal Reserve holds, many of which involve rules governing how financial institutions manage their cash reserves. Recent research inside and outside the Federal Reserve indicated that by prompting banks to hold lower reserve levels through regulatory adjustments, the Federal Reserve could further shrink its balance sheet under the existing system. Logan said she agrees, adding that the Federal Reserve is working on making reserve management “more efficient” during periods of stress. She also said that some liquidity rules increase reserves but do not improve safety, because banks are unwilling to use those reserves during crises. “This is inefficient use of the Fed’s balance sheet, and we can absolutely avoid this situation.”

▌Federal Reserve’s Williams: Risks from inflation and employment are moving toward balance; leaning toward holding steady

On April 3, New York Fed President Williams said that the inflation and employment risks stemming from rising energy prices have moved toward “balance,” and he is inclined to support maintaining interest rates unchanged. Williams said: “Monetary policy, through the actions we took last year and our current stance, has in fact been well prepared to balance these risks—that’s what we need to do.” Williams also said he believes losses in private credit (the non-bank lending field) would not pose a systemic risk, even though some investors in that space have requested early redemptions. Williams said this is mainly due to the repricing of underlying loans. He said: “I don’t think it will pose a systemic risk to our financial system at this point.” He also noted that policymakers are “closely watching” banks’ risk exposures. When asked whether certain private credit funds could be seen as “too big to fail,” he replied: “Absolutely not.”

▌Probability the Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged in April is 99.5%

On April 3, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is 0.5%, and the probability of holding rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 6.0%, and the probability of holding rates unchanged is 93.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 0.5%.

Golden Encyclopedia

▌Under geopolitical crises, can Bitcoin still be called “digital gold”?

Every time there is a geopolitical crisis, gold prices rise while Bitcoin prices plunge. After six tests, the notion of “digital gold” has never been confirmed by data. Countries hoard gold but exclude Bitcoin from their reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has asymmetry: it falls when stocks fall, but it does not rise when stocks rise. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from achieving a safe-haven status: derivatives excess (market structure), the dominance of leveraged traders (participant composition), and the lack of repeated behavioral records (behavioral accumulation).

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a “useful asset during crises.” When borders close and banks fail, it can indeed play a role. If these three asymmetries shrink, Bitcoin may no longer be a copycat of gold, but instead become a brand-new “next-generation gold.” The generational transition and the widespread adoption of algorithms are key factors that could accelerate this process.