QCP Capital: The slight rebound in Bitcoin seems to be related to improved risk sentiment, as Fed officials' statements have slightly tilted the balance toward a more accommodative stance.

[QCP Capital: The slight rebound of Bitcoin seems to be related to the improvement of risk sentiment, with Fed officials' statements slightly tilting towards a more accommodative stance] Singapore's cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound, and this rise seems to be related to the improvement of risk sentiment rather than specific driving factors in the cryptocurrency sector. At the same time, the stock market has slightly risen, and the market currently expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and labor market data continues to be weak, including a rise in the unemployment rate. Fed officials' statements have slightly tilted the balance towards a more accommodative direction. Given the limited important economic data this week, the market's focus will shift to the unemployment claims and ADP employment report to be released later this week. The ongoing widening of credit default swaps (CDS) related to AI and tech credit spreads indicates that investors are reassessing the driving forces behind this dominant macro market. The encryption ETF continues to record net outflows of funds, and multiple digital asset products are facing liquidation. Currently, most products are trading below a net asset value of $1 per unit, reflecting an increasing aversion to market risk. As the Bitcoin reserves of Strategy approach the breakeven point, and its stocks are placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, the issues surrounding Strategy are once again under scrutiny. As the end of the year approaches, Bitcoin is facing the dual impact of negative capital flows and a supportive options structure. The correlation with AI-related stocks has strengthened, while the fear and greed index has declined. The demand for downside protection remains high, even though open interest still leans towards call options, both positions and implied volatility have decreased. If the price of Bitcoin rebounds to around $95,000, it may face selling pressure related to ETFs, thereby strengthening its range-bound oscillation trend. After a significant decline recently, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a key support level. The encryption market continues to serve as a barometer for overall market risk appetite, with macro driving factors still firmly controlling market direction.