Economists have raised their expectations for the rise in the U.S. economy next year, expecting the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

On November 25, a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revealed that the U.S. economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, but job creation is projected to remain weak. The survey was conducted from November 3 to November 11 and included 42 professional forecasters. The median expectation for economic growth in 2026 is 2%, higher than the 1.8% from the previous survey in October. According to Reuters, this stands in stark contrast to the 1.3% growth forecast from the June survey. The median forecast from respondents also indicates that this year's inflation rate is expected to settle at 2.9% (slightly lower than the 3% predicted in October) and will only slightly decline to 2.6% in 2026. Economists attribute a considerable portion of the inflation to tariffs. Meanwhile, economists expect job growth to remain weak, with an average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls projected at 58,000, down from 60,000 in the October survey. They also predict that the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls for 2026 will be 64,000, lower than the 75,000 forecast in the October survey. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of 2026 and maintain that level throughout the year. Regarding the Fed's interest rate path, a 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December, with only a further reduction of 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate closer to neutral levels. (Jin10)