Market Observation Weekly Report [6.9 - 6.13]: Geopolitical disturbances and cautious capital resonate, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market builds momentum at high levels.

The turbulent geopolitical situation affects the flow of funds, mainstream cryptocurrencies experience fluctuations and adjustments, while altcoins show a corrective trend

Macroeconomic fluctuations intensify, market sentiment fluctuates:

• The tense situation in the Middle East has triggered a short-term risk aversion sentiment, leading to a decrease in volatility. The market's expectation for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut has heated up, and the overall attitude is becoming more cautious and wait-and-see.

The inflow momentum of funds has slightly warmed up but lacks sustainability:

• Cryptocurrency ETFs net inflow of $1.02 billion but growth rate slows down, stablecoin issuance growth rate declines, and the funding entry attitude is cautious.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies show a divergence in performance, Bitcoin's strong momentum is easing, and Ethereum is pulling back after a rebound:

• Bitcoin encountered resistance and fell back after a surge, while Ethereum's momentum for a rebound weakened. Long-term holders continue to buy, and the overall structure remains moderately strong.

Liquidity marginally improves for small-cap tokens but upward movement is hindered:

• The total market value of small-cap tokens has rebounded but is facing resistance and has retraced again. The market share has stabilized and is fluctuating, while the on-chain activity index stands at 53, indicating that it has not yet emerged from a weak position.
• Currently in the final stage of consolidation, we need to wait for the funds to break through in the short term, patiently observing the strengthening structure of small-cap tokens and the signs of capital flowing back into mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• Geopolitics: The situation in the Middle East is tense but has not escalated into a full-blown conflict, lasting for about two weeks, with the United States providing support but not directly intervening.
• Market Dynamics: Oil prices rise due to sentiment, Bitcoin returns to $105,000, U.S. stocks rebound, volatility decreases, and the market tends to stabilize.
• Economic Policy: The probability of interest rate cuts in July has increased, the Federal Reserve balances inflation and economic growth, and the geopolitical situation may involve U.S. interests.

2. Fund Flow Analysis & Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Fund Flow

• ETF Funds: This week inflow was 2.80046 billion, with a significant increase in inflow.
• Stablecoin: This week, 2.3 billion was issued, with an average daily issuance of 321 million, and the issuance level is at a relatively high position.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• Offshore Premium: The premium of stablecoins has continued to rise.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range.
• On-chain chip distribution: Chips above $103,000 have increased.

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC maintains a consolidation, and funds continue to flow into BTC.
• On-chain Activity: The rise in active addresses may indicate that the phase of bottoming out is complete.

Macroeconomic Review

Pay attention to the geopolitical situation

• Geopolitical Background:

The terrain in the Middle East is complex, and the military strength of surrounding countries varies greatly, making it difficult for local conflicts to escalate into full-scale wars. Unless major external powers intervene directly, conflicts will remain limited to small-scale confrontations (such as missile and drone attacks).

• Scale and Duration of Conflict:

Relevant parties have indicated that they will continue to engage for two weeks, expecting a long-term low-intensity confrontation rather than a large-scale conventional or nuclear war. Neighboring countries, as a buffer, have further restricted direct ground contact.

• Impact Assessment:

Under the current situation, the market's concern for a full-scale war is relatively low, and geopolitical risks are more reflected in emotional fluctuations rather than substantive military escalations.

• Oil Price Dynamics:

The current rise in oil prices is due to emotional reactions rather than supply disruptions, as there have been no attacks on oil facilities or transportation routes. There is no direct impact on global oil supply in the short term.

• US Stocks and Cryptocurrency:

Although the U.S. stock market is in the negative before trading, it is rebounding, and Bitcoin has risen to $105,000, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. Volatility has retreated from the morning peak and is fluctuating within the $1,000 range in the afternoon.

• Volatility Change:

Compared to the beginning of the year, the current market is desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the volatility has decreased.

• Institutional Holdings Impact:

Institutional holdings increase, circulating coins decrease, similar to the US stock market model (long in bull markets, short in bear markets). The ETF locking effect is significant, with outflows and inflows balanced but a large portion locked.

• Market Rhythm：

The price trend of Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with the US stock market. Institutional decision-making cycles are long (measured in years for portfolio adjustments), resulting in a decrease in circulating chips and increased market stability. However, in the short term, it is still driven by emotions, such as the rebound after the drop at 6 AM.

• Comparison with Other Cryptocurrencies:

Other mainstream cryptocurrencies maintain a high volatility rhythm due to the lack of large-scale ETFs and deep institutional participation.

Neutral Interest Rate

From July 30, 2025, to December 9, 2026, the interest rate cut probability distribution gradually changes.

The meetings on October 29 and December 10, 2025, show an increasing probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points to 375-400 basis points.

Especially for the meeting on December 10, 2025, the probability of a rate cut of 225-250 basis points is 28.6%, while the probability of a cut to 400-425 basis points is 21.3%. The meetings in 2026 indicate that the rate cut magnitude may tend to stabilize, with a more dispersed probability distribution.

Key Events to Focus on Next Week

Key Events Impact Next Week

Macroeconomic Data Release Table

Data Release

2. On-chain Data Analysis

1. Changes in short to medium-term market data affecting the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow Situation

This week's stablecoin funding data compared to last week (5/31-6/6) shows that the issuance of stablecoins increased from 1.005 billion to 1.149 billion, a week-on-week increase of 14%. The average daily issuance rose from 143 million to 164 million, also a week-on-week increase of 14%. It can be seen that although the issuance of stablecoins this week is still increasing compared to last week, the growth rate of issuance has begun to slow down. Compared to the recovery of the growth rate of issuance last week, this week's growth rate of issuance has once again cooled down. The flow of stablecoin funds is closely related to the price trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies, and changes in market sentiment will directly affect the issuance and circulation of stablecoins. Therefore, combined with the price of Bitcoin, the cooling of the growth rate of stablecoin issuance this week may also be one of the reasons why Bitcoin tested its previous high this week without breaking through.

Overall, stablecoins as a "funding pool" role in the cryptocurrency market deserve our attention. The total amount of stablecoins is still growing, but the pace of issuance shows fluctuations. Currently, it is not yet the rhythm for a comprehensive market rebound, so it is advisable to maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow Situation

From June 6 to June 13 this week, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow, with a net inflow amount of $1.02045 billion, which is an increase of $1.718 billion compared to last week, reflecting a short-term warming of investment sentiment among institutional and U.S. investors. Specifically, from a daily perspective, it can be seen from the chart that in the first two days of this week, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs accelerated, while the price of Bitcoin rebounded to the highest point of the week on Tuesday, testing the previous price pattern's peak area again. In the following days, Bitcoin ETFs continued to have a net inflow, but the inflow speed has begun to cool down. Correspondingly, the BTC price started to peak and show a correction from Wednesday. The investment sentiment of institutional investors began to cool down in the latter half of this week. Therefore, overall, before a reversal in the downward trend of the net inflow speed of Bitcoin ETFs occurs, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of BTC price continuously retreating here.

Another data point worth noting this week is the ETH ETF. The ETH ETF has seen significant and continuous inflows this week. Sustained inflows are bound to have relatively positive medium to long-term effects. However, after an inflow of 240 million on June 11th, the market also experienced a pullback. It should also be noted whether there are any irrational short-term situations in the ETF market.

1.3 OTC Premium/Discount

In the recent week (from June 7 to June 13), the off-exchange premium rates of USDT and USDC initially rose in sync, reflecting a return of off-exchange funds in the first half of this week. The overall rebound trend in the market during the first half of the week also demonstrates this point. Starting from Wednesday, the off-exchange premium rates of USDT and USDC began to turn downward after reaching 99.79% and 100%, respectively. The overall market almost started a new adjustment on Wednesday. However, on Thursday, the off-exchange premium rate of USDC turned upward again, diverging from USDT. As of today, the off-exchange premium rate of USDC has returned to 100%, while USDT continues to decline to 99.65%. Although USDC has rebounded, its off-exchange premium rate has not exceeded 100%, and the overall trend of off-exchange premium rates for USDC and USDT has still shown a downward trend from the beginning of the year until now. In normal or bullish market phases, stablecoins often exhibit slight premiums, indicating that there are funds willing to buy stablecoins at higher prices to enter the market. Therefore, from the current premium rates of USDC and USDT, it can be seen that the overall market is still leaning towards conservatism, and the overall sentiment remains cautious.

1.4 Institutional Purchase

From the buying behavior of a certain institution, it can be observed that although the institution has continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin this year, the buying pace has significantly slowed down after the price of Bitcoin entered 100,000, with the price reaching around 106,495 on June 2. The quantity bought decreased from 4,020 coins on May 26 to 705 coins. However, when the Bitcoin price was around 105,426 this week, they bought 1,040 coins, indicating a slight increase in buying volume as the price declined. Therefore, it can be seen that the institution currently tends to be cautious about buying Bitcoin above 100,000, but is willing to increase its buying quantity when the price of Bitcoin retracts.

1.5 Holdings of Short-term and Long-term Holders

As of early June 2025, data on the BTC chain shows that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) continues to rise, reaching a nearly six-month high of about 14.4 million BTC. This indicates that the confidence of medium to long-term capital in the market is continuously strengthening, with a large amount of BTC locked in inactive wallets, further reducing liquidity. At the same time, the supply of short-term holders (STH) has declined from the peak at the beginning of the year, hitting a low at the end of May, representing a continuous weakening of selling pressure over the past few months. There was a slight rebound last week, which may reflect that some short-term traders in the market started to bottom-fish. However, this week, the supply of short-term holders has begun to turn downward again, while the supply of long-term holders continues to reach new highs. It can be seen that the correction in the latter half of this week may primarily be driven by the selling pressure from short-term holders, while long-term holders are still increasing their holdings. Therefore, even if the price experiences a correction, it may still present a good buying opportunity.

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