Viewpoint: The pricing of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year will lead to an increase in the 2Y U.S. Treasury.

[Opinion: Pricing the Fed not to cut rates this year will send Treasury 2Y higher] BNP Paribas analysts noted in a note that the US two-year Treasury yield is expected to rise in the coming months if the money market excludes expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. “By September 2025, we expect the market to strip out the two rate cuts this year that were originally expected and postpone them until 2026,” the analysts said. "This will cause the two-year Treasury yield to move higher before retreating at the end of the year. Analysts expect the two-year yield to rise to 4.10% in the third quarter and fall back to 4.00% in the fourth quarter. They expect the Fed to implement four rate cuts in 2026. (Golden Ten)