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Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-08 🐂
Nice bounce on the “black” Monday event.
Directionally correct, but poor execution.
Got scared out of longs and played a bit too defensively so a bit late to the reversal, but now feeling good with size and entries.
Currently longing BTC, Fart and HYPE.
No shorts for now.
In the short-term the wick on SPX and BTC caused by a rumor of a 6 month delay on tariffs feels very much like the fake ETF rumor back in 2023.
Fartcoin has already filled the wick and is continuing upwards. BTC will likely follow.
Current bias is that this is a bear market rally, but there are many things that can turn this around.
Positives
- Forced selling from macro(gold sell-off) and crypto
- A bit early, but BTC price and structure could develop into the deglobalization hedge narrative(if price can sustain itself)
- CB premium now in an uptrend
- OI still relatively low
- Spot CVDs showing buying on multiple exchanges. Quite rare.
- [MACRO] The worst seems over. Trump seems to be focusing on China specifically wrt tariffs. Other countries seem more cooperative and willing.
Negatives
- No volume capitulation wick on BTC
- Saylor wasn’t the buyer as of March 2nd. Could be seen as good news, but I think he’s being deliberate in delaying his announcement of purchases during March to soften sell-the-news flows. src :
- LT option skews still in bear territory
- [MACRO] Disruption in the economy due to tariffs likely to have longer negative growth effects.
Great bottom call from defivillain and his thoughts on why there was no capitulation wick.
Also great takes from Avi and Fejau on 1000x. tldr bullish
Ciao 😉 Stay safe frens
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