The world's first Polymarket autonomous trading hedging fund Omen will be developed by Cracked Devs, based on Spectral Labs' AI system Lux. Omen is led by the AI agent Polly and a cross-framework agent team, focusing on different markets and utilizing real-time data for analysis and autonomous betting. It is expected to launch in April.

The pessimism of German companies heralds a bad omen, as the IFO survey shows a further decline in confidence this month. Deutsche Bank economists believe that the pessimism of companies about the current economic situation and future prospects is mainly due to the heavy burden of Intrerest Rate and the structural drag of the eurozone economy. The German economy will hardly rise in the second half of this year, at most stagnating for the whole year.

June 25th data from Morgan Stanley's Marko

Swap spreads in the UK are set to narrow further as the resilience of the domestic economy gives the Bank of England room to raise interest rates. The UK economy grew 0.5% month-on-month in June, more than double the expected growth rate, with industrial output surging 1.8% month-on-month. With UK real policy rates still negative, the data are expected to encourage the Bank of England to tighten policy further amid still double-digit retail price inflation. UK 2-year gilts opened lower today, which is not surprising given the GDP data. But even at around 4.95%, the bond yield seems to be ignoring the warning that the UK's real policy rate needs to be substantially in positive territory for inflation to converge closer to 2%

Swap spreads in the UK are set to narrow further as the resilience of the domestic economy gives the Bank of England room to raise interest rates. The UK economy grew 0.5% month-on-month in June, more than double the expected growth rate, with industrial output surging 1.8% month-on-month. With UK real policy rates still negative, the data are expected to encourage the Bank of England to tighten policy further amid still double-digit retail price inflation. UK 2-year gilts opened lower today, which is not surprising given the GDP data. But even at around 4.95%, the bond yield seems to be ignoring the warning that the UK's real policy rate needs to be substantially in positive territory for inflation to converge closer to 2%