encryption "Veteran" Training Diary

Written by: tradinghoe

Compiled by: AididiapJP, Foresight News

In the world of cryptocurrency, nothing is more important than survival. You must ensure that you can continue to participate in the game every day, preserve your capital, and keep learning.

Most people do not understand this principle when they first enter the market. They hope to achieve a leap in wealth within a few months, viewing cryptocurrency as a shortcut to overnight riches, and it is this misunderstanding that leads to the eventual failure of most.

There is a myth in the crypto circle: as long as you wait long enough, you will definitely make money. People always think that after three to five years in this field, they will surely achieve financial freedom.

When seeing early players, many people will ask: “Why haven't you become a billionaire yet?”

But the truth is: cryptocurrency is not a get-rich-quick game, but rather a test of who can last the longest. “Success” does not arrive on anyone's timetable; it only appears when preparation, capital preservation, and opportunity align.

This game is not about winning in the first or second cycle, but rather about those who are still present, still learning, and still have capital when opportunities arise.

Survival first, profit second.

Two types of people who are truly successful

After spending a long time in the crypto world, you will find that successful people mainly fall into two categories:

1. Cross-Cycle Veteran

They are seasoned veterans who have weathered multiple complete market cycles.

They have experienced the burst of the ICO bubble in 2017, witnessed the rise and fall of DeFi summer, participated in the NFT frenzy, suffered heavy losses during the FTX incident, and have been liquidated multiple times.

But they survived.

Because they regard 'stay at the table' as the highest principle.

These “veterans” are bruised all over, knowing what a market crash feels like, having been scammed, exploited, and educated. But each disaster makes them more refined: they understand how to choose better, have more patience, and remain vigilant.

2. The Chosen One

The second type of people should have been eliminated multiple times by now:

They have lost everything repeatedly. They had all their assets wiped out on FTX and were liquidated on October 10 due to high leverage and making the wrong move. They bought at the peak, stubbornly holding during the crash, clearly getting taken advantage of, and making all the rookie mistakes.

But for some reason, they are still here.

Perhaps they only put in a small amount on FTX, perhaps there were still reserves in the cold wallet after the liquidation, perhaps they keep starting over again, perhaps they encountered a stroke of luck and got a chance to turn things around, perhaps someone helped them out. It could be said to be luck, fate, or simply an unwillingness to give up.

They are the ones who gamble until they finally get lucky.

They learned to survive in pain.

The difference between those who stay here for five years and those who exit early is very simple:

Survivors learn to control risks, while losers only focus on chasing profits.

Survivor Focus:

Preserve the principal

Only make high probability trades

Non-retaliatory trading

Losers focus:

Seize every rise and fall

Quick Doubling

Thinking “Why haven't I made a profit when others have?” instead of “Where did I go wrong?”

It's like boxing: no matter how hard you punch, if you can't defend, you won't last a round. One counterattack and you're down. No matter how strong the offense is, it's useless without defense.

In trading, defense determines victory.

No matter how strong your analytical skills are, it is meaningless if you cannot protect your principal. One mistake, one high leverage, could completely eliminate you.

Offense is exciting, but defense keeps you in the game until the end.

The harsh reality is: most people fail because they only want to make money, but forget to first learn how not to lose money.

The Paradox of “Returning to Zero”

People often say: Losing everything once can change you.

Watching your assets go to zero can bring about a painful process of humility and vigilance, but it can help you grow.

Losses can help you change bad habits, eliminate arrogance, and make you realize that the market does not care about your emotions, analysis, or self-perceived intelligence. The market can teach you how to behave at any time.

This is almost a rite of passage: those who have experienced hitting rock bottom and gotten back up have learned lessons that those who sail smoothly cannot comprehend. They know the taste of the valley, and thus are more cautious, more shrewd, and more patient.

To some extent, losing everything once or twice can even be a good thing: it can shatter illusions and filter out those who are just there for the excitement. Those who come back from zero are stronger, smarter, and more resilient.

But ironically:

If you had learned to survive from the very beginning, you could have avoided the lesson of losing everything.

This is the paradox: the lessons learned from losing everything are incredibly valuable, but if one starts with the right mindset, these lessons could have been avoided.

Learn position management early, and you won't face liquidation.

By managing risks early, you won't have to learn through huge losses.

Putting capital preservation first early on means you won't have to experience the pain of starting over.

Learn from others' mistakes early, so you don't have to pay tuition yourself.

“The chosen ones” learn to survive only after losing everything multiple times; “the cockroaches” either learned their lesson after losing once or are smart enough to observe others' losses and learn from them. But the best scenario? Is never having lost everything, because they understood survival from the very start.

You don't need to touch a hot stove to know it's hot; you can listen to someone who has been burned. You can learn without paying the price.

But most people can't, they have to experience pain themselves to believe it, they have to hit rock bottom to understand where they went wrong. That's human nature; only after experiencing pain do they remember.

The lessons are the same; the difference lies in whether you learn from others' experiences (observational learning) or learn with your own money (personal experience). Gamblers prefer the latter.

Beware of the “survival trap”

But survival above all also hides dangers: you may be overly fearful of risks.

Yes, survival comes first. But this mindset has a dark side that few talk about: the survival trap.

It forms gradually: you start by just wanting to avoid losing money, becoming more cautious, waiting for better opportunities and new narratives. But before you know it, caution turns into fear.

You have fallen into the “survival trap.”

You no longer wait for good opportunities, but rather for perfect opportunities, yet perfection does not exist, so you wait forever.

Watching everything slip away: A new narrative emerging? “No one is chatting on the push, forget it.” A good opportunity? “It's too late, I'm afraid it's a trap.”

Every time you miss an opportunity, your confidence diminishes. You're too afraid of losses and have forgotten that the goal is actually to make money.

You use “waiting” as an excuse, but in fact, you are avoiding. You use survival as a reason, completely evading risk.

However, moderate and controllable risks are precisely the way to profit.

Survival traps are common among those who have been heavily impacted: they have lost everything, rebuilt their capital, but are still haunted by the losses and dare not take action again.

There are always people like this in the group: constantly analyzing and commenting, but never buying in. They've been saying for five months “I need to get in”, and the opportunity has risen from $100 to $500, yet they still do nothing because “it might pull back.”

To survive without taking action is equivalent to being a bystander.

You need balance. Survival is not about taking no risks, but rather taking calculated risks. While protecting the downside, strive for the upside.

Top traders not only survive but also act when the time is right. They do not hesitate excessively.

The goal is to be assertive with moderation, rather than always being defensive.

If you find yourself watching opportunities slip by for several months, constantly comforting yourself with “waiting for a better opportunity / narrative,” then you have fallen into the survival trap.

The market rewards patience and punishes hesitation.

Learn to survive, then learn to act. Masters possess both.

Neglected Mathematics: The Survival of Compound Interest

This point is not often discussed: if it returns to zero, compound interest is impossible.

Assuming a starting point of 10,000:

Leverage 3 times to 30,000, very good

A bad trade lost 80%, leaving 6,000

Re-flip 5 times back to 30,000, recovered.

Invested 90% of the principal again, lost down to 3,000, the second time.

You have won two major battles, yet your total assets have decreased by 70% compared to the starting point.

Compared to those who focus on survival:

Starting at 10,000

A good trade earns 50%, up to 15,000

Wait for a good opportunity, maintain 15,000

Next time a good trade earns 40%, reaching 21,000

Continue waiting

Next opportunity to earn 50%, by 31,500

Patiently wait in the noise

Earn 80% when the market sends clear signals, reaching 56,700

Smaller profits, longer time, but the principal increases by 5.7 times, as it has never retreated (or suffered a massive drawdown).

True compound interest does not rely on high-risk trading, but on continuous and steady growth.

“Veterans” understand this principle, “the chosen ones” understand it only after experiencing pain, while the losers will never understand.

Unobtrusive Superpower: Risk Management

Risk management determines whether you will be present in five years or become a cautionary tale.

Key Principles:

Position Management

Don't make a single investment so large that you can't afford to lose it. If a zero balance keeps you up at night, reduce your position to a level where you can feel at ease.

counterparty risk

After FTX, there's no discussion on this: Don't store large amounts of assets on centralized exchanges. If you don't control it yourself, it's not your money.

In the crypto space, there is no “too big to fail,” and cash out to self-custody wallets every time.

Leverage = Amplifying Destruction

Leverage can amplify profits, but it can also amplify losses, making you vulnerable during flash crashes and hunts. October 10 is just one example; the market shows no mercy for high leverage.

Be extremely cautious when using it, and be aware that you may lose everything.

Liquidity Management

Always keep some cash on hand. When others are in panic, having cash allows you to seize opportunities. But this requires not putting all your money in high-risk investments beforehand. The best opportunities often arise during a market crash, but the prerequisite is that you still have ammunition.

Emotional blocking

Set rules when emotions are stable: stop trading after a big loss, take partial profits when in profit, do not revenge trade, and avoid FOMO chasing highs.

The market constantly tests discipline, protecting oneself with rules.

Risk management is about smartly surviving until the next opportunity arises.

Waiting for a “good enough” opportunity

Waiting is a core part of trading, and even the most important part.

Top traders wait for “good enough” opportunities to take action: they closely follow new narratives, track smart money movements, study reports, and continuously compare current patterns with past cycles.

An “adequately good” opportunity refers to a time when the risk-reward ratio is clearly favorable, one has a deep understanding of the narrative, genuinely agrees with the logic, and can comfortably build a position.

Such moments are rare, so you need to wait.

To win, you don't have to participate in every market; wanting to be involved in everything may lead to losses.

Not trading is also a form of trading.

Comparative trap

Social media exacerbates the problem: everyone showcases their profits, with various posts like “I said it first” and “10,000 turns into 1 million,” creating the illusion that “everyone is getting rich except me.”

But what you can't see are those who silently left after the liquidation, those who still haven't recovered by October 10.

Survivorship bias is real and cruel: those who show profits are survivors. Behind every profit report, countless people have already lost everything and exited.

So when someone asks, “You haven't gotten rich after being in the crypto space for n years?” the question itself reveals ignorance.

These years may include:

After several months of a bear market, the best strategy is to observe.

FTX collapsed, many people's assets went to zero.

Multiple flash crashes led to the liquidation of leveraged positions.

Countless scams catch participants off guard.

In fact, it is an expensive mistake in tuition.

Time spent on learning rather than gambling

Here, those who have capital, understand the market, and know when to advance and retreat after n years are actually in a good situation.

They may not be rich yet, but they are ready for the next opportunity to come.

Comparing those who went bankrupt four times in three years: the same amount of time, one survived, one did not.

Stop comparing your journey with the highlights curated online. Everyone's timeline, risk tolerance, and starting capital are different.

The only meaningful comparison is self-growth: if your knowledge, capital, and layout have improved compared to last year, you are the winner.

Learn first, earn later

All successful traders go through a learning period.

At this stage, you won't make big money; instead, you are paying tuition and learning lessons: understanding market psychology, identifying danger signals, grasping cycle rhythms, and comprehending narrative logic.

This stage cannot be skipped.

Some people have tried: entering the market during a bull run, making a bit of money by luck, thinking they understand it. When the market turns, they lose everything because their foundation is not solid. Earning money before learning cannot last.

“Veterans” have studied for many years: reading white papers, understanding L1 architecture, grasping DeFi mechanisms, seeing through Ponzi models, distinguishing between value creation and extraction. During the silence of the bear market, they immerse themselves in learning.

The “Chosen One” ultimately understands the need to learn; after losing multiple times, they realize that relying solely on luck is not enough.

The mode is always the same: learn first, then earn.

Those who try to earn money without learning will ultimately lose everything; those who learn well first may make money more slowly, but once they earn it, they can keep it.

So being in the crypto space for n years without getting rich doesn't mean failure; it may mean you spent n years learning: accumulating knowledge, developing market intuition, and mastering risk control. This is not a waste of time, but rather laying the groundwork.

The profit stage is ahead. When it arrives, you will be ready, because while others are gambling or complaining, you are cultivating.

Live to see the next opportunity arise.

The ultimate truth in the crypto space: you just need to be present when the next real opportunity arises.

After the FTX collapse, many people thought that crypto was dead. But if you endure, you can wait for the next cycle to heat up and seize the next opportunity.

After the flash crash liquidation of leveraged traders on October 10, pessimists turned bearish, calling for a top and the end of the cycle. ** Ahem, these pessimists are probably done for.

But if you survive, you can continue to wait for the next wave.

Each disaster gives rise to a new group of survivors and a group of those who leave. The survivors hold on until something new appears, while those who leave miss out.

Bitcoin was once sentenced to death, then Ethereum, followed by NFTs “all will go to zero”, and every bear market is the “end of crypto”. But each time, something new is born, and those who survive seize it.

Your task is not to predict what the next opportunity is, but to survive until it appears.

It could be a breakthrough in scalability, it could be an interesting new technology, or it could be something no one expected. You can't predict it.

But as long as you survive, you can be present. This is the real important advantage.

To be honest, survival often feels bad.

Watching opportunities slip away due to unsuitable risks, I feel as slow as a snail while others race ahead like hares.

But the key is: slow action is better than no action.

The person running wildly has fallen off the cliff; they are no longer here.

Every day of survival makes you smarter, and every portion of preserved capital is fuel for the next opportunity.

The turtle wins over the rabbit not because it is faster, but because the rabbit makes mistakes, takes unnecessary risks, and fails to finish the race.

You don't need to hurry, just keep moving. Keep learning. Keep preserving your capital. Keep being present.

In the end, you will win the match.