Hyperliquid Price Prediction: Financing Rates Turn Positive, Whales Target $51

Hyperliquid (HYPE) price stabilized around $40 on Wednesday after experiencing a significant correction earlier this week. On-chain data and derivatives data indicate market conditions are improving, with increased whale trading activity and positive funding rates showing growing confidence among large holders. Coinglass’s open interest weighted funding rate data shows the indicator has turned positive at 0.0090%, suggesting longs are paying shorts.

Contrast Between Increasing Whale Orders and Low Retail Activity

CryptoQuant’s aggregated data supports an optimistic outlook, as HYPE’s spot and futures markets show increasing whale orders and decreasing retail activity. This combination hints at a potential recovery ahead. This contrasting pattern is an important leading indicator in the crypto market. When retail investors panic sell while whales accumulate against the trend, it often marks the formation of a bottom.

The rise in whale trading activity is reflected across multiple dimensions. First, the depth of large orders on the order book has increased, indicating institutional-level buy orders are setting defensive levels at key prices. Second, the frequency of large transfers on-chain has risen, implying whales are reallocating positions. Third, the average cost basis of whale addresses is approaching the current price, suggesting they find this price range attractive.

Low retail activity is evident in the trading volume structure. The proportion of small trades has decreased significantly, while large trades have increased. This “the strong get stronger” capital flow pattern is very common during technical bottoming phases. Retail panic selling often peaks at the bottom, while whales quietly accumulate. This transfer of funds lays the groundwork for a subsequent rebound, as chips shift from weak hands to strong hands, making the market structure more stable.

Hyperliquid’s price forecast must consider these shifts in chip distribution. When whale holdings increase, market selling pressure tends to decrease because whales typically adopt long-term holding strategies rather than frequent trading. Conversely, markets with high retail holdings tend to be more volatile, as retail investors are more prone to emotional decision-making. The current trend toward concentration of chips provides structural support for HYPE’s stability.

Historical Significance of Positive Funding Rates and Rebound Signals

(Source: Coinglass)

In addition to whale buying, derivatives data also supports a potential rebound in Hyperliquid’s price. Coinglass’s open interest weighted funding rate data shows that the number of traders betting on further declines in HYPE is lower than those expecting a price increase. The indicator has turned positive, reaching 0.0090% on Wednesday, indicating longs are paying shorts.

Funding rates are central to perpetual contracts markets. When funding rates are positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting a bullish market sentiment; when negative, shorts pay longs, indicating bearish sentiment. The shift from negative to positive funding rates often marks a key turning point in market sentiment. Historically, when funding rates turn positive, HYPE’s price tends to surge significantly.

This correlation is not coincidental. Funding rates reflect the supply and demand in the derivatives market, which is often more sensitive to market sentiment than the spot market. When funding rates turn positive, it indicates longs are willing to pay to maintain their positions, showing strong confidence in further upside. Moreover, periods of negative funding rates are often associated with excessive shorting; as these shorts unwind, additional buy pressure can drive prices higher.

The current positive funding rate of 0.0090%, while modest, is significant in signaling a shift. It marks a critical point where market sentiment transitions from “fear of decline” to “expectation of rise.” As funding rates continue to rise, more trend followers will enter, creating a self-reinforcing positive cycle. Hyperliquid’s price forecast should closely monitor subsequent developments in funding rates; sustained positive values and increasing magnitude will further confirm the sustainability of the rebound.

Key Support at $36.51 and the 200-Day EMA Defense Line

(Source: TradingView)

On October 30, HYPE faced resistance near the daily resistance level of $51.15, then declined 19% over the next six days, testing the $36.51 daily support level on Tuesday. This 19% correction is within a healthy retracement range, especially after a rapid prior rally. The support level at $36.51 coincides roughly with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $38.69 and the previously broken downtrend line, making it a critical support zone to watch.

The 200-day EMA holds a special place in technical analysis as a long-term trend indicator. When the price is above the 200-day EMA, it is generally considered a long-term uptrend; breaking below often signals trend weakening. Currently, HYPE is trading slightly above $40, remaining above the 200-day EMA at $38.69, which is an important sign of bullish defense.

More notably, there is a confluence of three supports. The daily support at $36.51, the 200-day EMA at $38.69, and the previously broken downtrend line form a dense support zone. When multiple technical supports overlap, their defensive strength is multiplied. This overlap is not accidental but reflects a collective market recognition that this price range is a strong area for defense and accumulation.

Technical Key Levels Analysis

$36.51 Daily Support: An important price memory from previous consolidation

$38.69 200-Day EMA: The lifeline of long-term trend; losing it could change the trend

Downtrend Line: Previously broken resistance now acting as support

Triple Overlap Support Zone: A strong support band between $36 and $39

RSI Indicator and the Path to $51.15

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, approaching the neutral midpoint of 50, indicating early signs of weakening bearish momentum. RSI measures the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100. Values below 30 are oversold, above 70 are overbought, and 50 is a neutral balance point.

The current RSI at 45 is significant. It is neither oversold (which would suggest further downside) nor fully neutral, but is trending upward toward 50, often a precursor to a price rebound. The momentum shift indicated by RSI moving above 50 typically precedes price increases. However, for HYPE to sustain a rebound, RSI must break above the 50 level.

If HYPE continues to recover, it could extend the rally toward the daily resistance at $51.15. This target, from the current around $40, represents about a 28% increase. The $51.15 level is not arbitrary; it is based on previous price structure, being the high on October 30 when the price faced resistance and pulled back. This suggests a significant amount of trapped positions and profit-taking pressure at that level.

Breaking through $51.15 will require strong buying volume. Technically, RSI must break above 50 and stay elevated, with increased trading volume confirming the breakout, along with sustained positive funding rates. Fundamentally, it requires continued whale buying, improved market sentiment, and a supportive broader crypto environment.

Conversely, if HYPE pulls back and closes below the daily support at $36.51, it could decline further toward the next support at $30.92. This bearish scenario must also be considered in the forecast. Breaking below key support would imply a breakdown of bullish defenses, triggering stop-losses and panic selling, accelerating the decline. The $30.92 level is a deeper support zone, testing the market’s last line of defense if reached.